Stock Market: CNBC Report

By: Bill McLaren | Mon, Apr 17, 2006
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The European report will be posted tomorrow.

In this business of investing or trading the objective is the same. That objective is to "find the start of a trend -- enter that trend with limited risk -- and exit that trend when the trend becomes at risk." So one should endeavor to find out everything there is to know about trends, as that is the name of this game. So I'm going to attempt to add to your knowledge of trends today.

LET'S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 WEEKLY CHART

We haven't discussed the US Stock indexes in a while and I thought it prudent since this index is now at a very critical part of this bull campaign. Whenever a market shows a weak trend it is building for a fast move. This fast move could be in either direction as weak moves can be resolved up or down but when they are resolved the result is a fast trend. You can see in the beginning of this weekly chart the index came up from the low with a strong trend. It then showed a sideways pattern and started up out of that sideways pattern with a weak trend -- I've enclosed that trend in a box.

We can define a weak trend as one that has three thrusts and all corrections in the opposite direction of the trend go deeply into the previous high or low depending upon the direction -- so in a weak trend the highs and lows overlap.

So in the first example there was a weak trend up that was resolved to the upside and resulted in a three month fast trend up. The index is currently in a weak trend up and if resolved to the downside it will mark the end of this three-year bull campaign. Or if resolved to the upside it will exhaust the bull campaign but at much higher levels and with a vertical movement. This exhaustion remains a possibility because this weak structure is taking place well above the previous high.

We could also place the European Stock Indexes in the same circumstance.

NOW LET'S LOOK AT A THE S&P 500 DAILY CHART

If you look closely at the last 10 days of trading you can see a small weak up trend before the decline. So there was a very small weak trend that was resolved to the downside. But because it was such a small trend the resolution could only be assumed to go as far as it has. If the index can start to trade below the descending trendline it would start to look like the index was getting legs to the downside. That is not near enough evidence to indicate the bull campaign is ending but this is the spot it either rolls over or goes into the next exhaustion phase of the trend.

NOW LET'S LOOK AT THE HANK SENG INDEX

Notice the lows during the front part of the chart. They are all capitulation or panic style of lows. The low I have highlighted was a weak trend down to complete the bear campaign-remember this is a weakly chart. So there was a weak trend down that was resolved to the upside. Three weeks ago I pointed out the Hang Send Index was starting to struggle upward and the length of time of the last leg was very short and if the index rolled over it would be bearish but it could also resolve to the upside and go into an exhaustion mode or vertical mode of trend. This was resolved to the upside.

The NIKKEI has fallen 4 days from the price level I said would bring in a correction. Last week I indicated the index would only fall 4 days so if I was correct, there should be a short term low in place now and a resumption of the trend. There should be a new high in less time than 4 days or something could be wrong with the trend.

YOU HAVE HAD A LOT OF REQUESTS FOR ME TO LOOK AT OIL-THIS IS A WEEKLY CHART OF OIL.

I don't know what crude is going to do but when you look at this chart you can see the past 9 months of trading has been on top of the previous set of highs. This indicates support has been at a high level and bullish. This current move up has come from a base pattern and is now approaching the previous highs and is the third test or the critical one. The fourth usually goes through. I thought the high last August exhausted the trend and it hasn't. The question is now is this large sideways move a top or consolidation. For this tend to be at risk the market need to be at a new high since almost all changes in trend come from "false break" patterns or breaking to new highs and failing. As far as I can see this can go either way we can see a "false break" top or a trend. All I can do is watch the daily trading and report to you when I can come to a conclusion. This may not be much help but it is all I have at the moment.

 


 

Bill McLaren

Author: Bill McLaren

Bill McLaren
McLaren Report

Disclaimer: This message is for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice nor an invitation to buy or sell securities. The views are the personal views of the author. Before acting on any of the ideas expressed, the reader should seek professional advice to determine the suitability in view of his or her personal circumstances.

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