The Macro Outlook

By: Sol Palha | Fri, Apr 28, 2006
Print Email

Dates will be put next to any new changes made from now on. From time to time we will stop analysing certain markets; on the same token we will suddenly add new markets, as was the case with Wheat recently. We might not always provide entry points; hence advanced traders can start looking for entry points when comments such as this market is bottoming are made (for example corn appears to be bottoming)


The dollar broke below our stop so all-regular currencies players are now fully out of this trade. The dollar is having a hard time trading past the 90-price point level. One of the reasons is that the US is blocking foreign governments from accruing US assets so despite several rate hikes the dollar has done nothing much for several months. The foreigners must be saying what are we going to hold these worthless dollars for if we cannot buy US assets with them. We will talk more about this next week. If the dollar fails to trade past the 90.00 price point level on the next attempt then the first downside target is going to be 87.00 and we could trade all the way down to 86.10 before stabilising. 4/4/06

Dollar failed to rally past 90 and so far has traded as low as 87.60. We are officially no longer bullish on the dollar and are going to simply sit on the sidelines watching this chap. The currency that appears to be the most interesting right now is the Swiss Franc. 4/18/06


Oil is being totally driven by Geopolitical factors now; tension between the US and Iran and Venezuela continue to mount (bear in mind that these two chaps are the number 2 and 3 producers). Furthermore the relationship between Russia and the US continue to sour and currently Russia is the worlds largest swing producer of oil. If oil is able to trade past 68.10 on good volume then it will almost certainly test the 70.00 ranges again before pulling back. 4/4/06

Oil traded past 68.10 and as envisioned traded easily to the 70.00 dollar ranges and actually surpassed it putting in a new all time high. With geo political tensions mounting oil could put in several new all time highs before pulling back. If we should attack Iran we might appear to win on the very short-term time frame but the spike in oil prices will be the equivalent of several missiles landing in New York city. Not to mention the serious surge in Terrorist activity it will cause both on the local and international fronts. We will be paying close attention to our religious provocation index over the next few months. The current pattern is suggesting that if oil can trade and hold above 74 it could spike all the way to the 78-81 ranges. 4/18/06


It traded past 7.47 but could not hold this level and thus entered into a short-term hard and fast corrective phase. However the good news is that it has flashed 2 positive divergence signals on the hourly charts and this should eventually lead to a 1-3 positive divergence signals being flashed on the daily charts. For now it needs to trade above 7.31 for at least 9 days in a row; if it can do that it should be able to trade all the way to 8.10 before pulling back. 4/11/06

Natural gas traded as high as 8.40 before pulling back; it appears to have put in a bottom or is close to putting in one. There is incredible support in the 6.90 ranges, however we feel that it is unlikely that it will trade below 7.20 at this stage. We have several positive divergence signals on the hourly charts. If we had to hazard a guess now we would say Natural gas is probably the best energy play in the markets for the next 6-12 months. All the attention now is on the oil markets and every one is forgetting that we have a serious natural gas problem. Unlike oil this problem is not so easy to address, as one cannot simply ship quantities of gas over large distances easily. We do not have enough LNG facilities yet so one small disturbance on the supply side or a sudden spike in demand could send this market screaming upwards. Risk takers can look to open positions if it pulls back to 7.20, place a stop at 6.50. Sell ½ at 8.40 and the rest when it trades to 9 dollars. 4/25/06


We would like to see a retest of the lows and a possible violation of them before issuing a new higher risk trade. Today's move up was based on a simple statement that the Feds are ready to stop raising interest rates. The masses forget that the Feds could just as easily change their minds and say oops we did not envision that oil prices would continue to rise or that we would continue to witness across the board increases in the prices of almost all the commodities. However back to the current picture, one more move down would be great. If we could have a huge downward move or two like todays upward move then it would most likely provide the foundation for a nice tradable rally. 4/18/06


Palladium blasted past the 330 mark and traded all the way up to 352. As long as it can stay above 330 it will be strong a break below that for an extended period of time will indicate that it is entering into a corrective phase (which will simply provide another buying opportunity). It's nice to note that Palladium has been holding the number one spot in sector strength for weeks on end. 4/4/06

Palladium has been able to stay above the 330 mark so far and the longer it stays here the higher the likelihood of a new pattern emerging. We are at a critical point now as Palladium has put in a new 3 year high and the next zone of major resistance is 380. If we get to this level and are able to hold then 420 becomes the next target. It's interesting to note that almost no one has noticed Palladium yet. 4/18/06


No new trades 4/25/06


Sitting on the sidelines except for the strangle play we have. 4/25/06

Live Cattle

Continue to hold till it trades to the 77.40 and then close this trade out for a small loss. 4/11/06

It traded to this range and surpassed it so we are out of this trade with a small loss. If it can trade above 74.00 and stay above this zone for 3 days it should be able to challenge the 76.50 plus ranges. 4/25/06


There is a chance that it might trade all the way down to 336 before putting in a secondary bottom. The other scenario would be for wheat to trade past 348 on strong volume; this would almost certainly ensure a test of the 360 ranges before a pull back. 4/4/06

It traded as high as 368 before pulling back. The July contract has begun trading so we will base our analysis on it. A good point of entry would be if wheat pulls back to the 353 ranges and holds this level; we should be able to trade to 368.20 and if we can hold this level a test of 388 is possible. 4/18/06


The new contract to follow now is the July contract hence prices are going to be slightly different as is the case with all new contracts. A pull back to the 238.50 ranges will be a good place to open new longs for risk takers. If it can hold at this level then it should be easy for it to trade to the 245 plus ranges. 4/18/06


It was unable to stay above the 1500 mark for 9 days in a row and hence experienced a rather rapid and furious pull back. Like corn it is now attempting to put in a secondary bottom. This could take 3 days or less or up to 6 weeks. 4/11/06

We are now in the July contract it appears to have put in a secondary bottom and then it took of really fast and is once again trading above the 1500 ranges. A pull back below the 1470 ranges could be used as an entry point for risk takers. Sell half at 1540 and the other half in the 1560-1590 ranges. 4/25/06

Swiss Franc

It did experience a nice move up but was unable to trade to the 79.12 ranges; it's also in the process of putting in a secondary bottom and if it can now rally past 78.00 and stay there for 3 days in a row it has a very good chance of trading to 79.12. 4/11/06

The above scenario came to fruition and ideally it would pull back to the 77.60-78.00 ranges before taking off again. Long term the franc looks like one of the best currencies out there. 4/25/06


Long term Trend Intermediate Trend Short term




Mutual Fund position according to our
Mutual fund timer
0 Long positions as of April 22, 2006. Since we are extremely conservative in this service we have gone on the defensive much earlier.

This acts as a barometer for the general markets as we are extremely conservative in this service. So if we are long here that means we think the markets are headed up. When we are in cash it usually means the markets are going to go through an extremely volatile phase and when we are short then the markets are going to go down.

Moving averages of new highs and New Lows

Moving average New Highs New lows
20day 810 860
100 day 490 320
I year (365 day) 390 180

This yoyo patterns continue. One week all the moving averages of new highs have a healthy lead over the new lows and then we have a sharp reversal. Once again we have another sharp reversal and this simply continues to reaffirm our views that volatility levels are going to keep rising to levels that most investors have never experienced before.

OMEGA Indicator (general long term slow moving market indicator)

Neutral. It has finally moved fully into the neutral zone. This is a very slow moving indicator and this move back fully into the Neutral zone probably means that its suggesting that all the new highs will be illusory in nature and that when the markets do drop the plunge is going to be rather huge.

Market Commentary

It appeared that the markets were nicely correcting last week when they mounted a humungous rally; the rally was all based on the fact that the public felt that the Feds are looking for a reason to start lowering interest rates. This caused many of the short sellers to hit the panic button and hence the Dow mounted a massive rally. There is nothing new to report on from our last week's stance. We keep waiting patiently for a nice decent pull back and until we experience one it would not be wise to initiate new higher risk plays on the Dow or any of the other indices.

Our smart money indicator issued yet another negative divergence signal on the hourly charts and it definitely did not confirm the new highs the Dow has put in the last 9 trading days. Last week we stated that the Dow Jones Utilities based on trend line analysis appeared ready to mount a rally; well since then they have rallied about 20 points before pulling back. The Utilities based on past analysis appear to rally first or correct first which means that the Dow still has time to correct before rallying as the Dow Jones industrials seems to lag the utilities. So based on this scenario the Dow still has room to correct up to 600 points and then come back roaring to life. This final top that we have been looking for could actually still occur before the end of this quarter but we do not think the markets will simply crash after that. Most likely they will trade sideways for a bit just to drive the bulls and the bears nuts.

Once again even though logically it appears that the final top has already been put in; a few facts prevents us from taking this stance

  1. No sell signals from any of our psychological indicators.
  2. A market top has never taken place while the NYSE specialists are not net short the market.
  3. Even though the bullish sentiment is high. The very small player is now running scared and this contrasts deeply with the smart money, which is now neutral.
  4. Odd lot sales and purchases; this is the dumbest of the dumb money out there. These guy short or go long the market in odd lot quantities (very small and very dumb money). The difference between those going long and shorting the markets is almost at a new low. In other words when one subtracts the purchases from the short sales one finds that these dumb chaps are net short. This is in stark contrast to the positions of the NYSE specialists (and smart money), which is net neutral with a few open long positions. There is no way these big fish are going to let these small fish win.


We will keep stating this again and again. The theme for now is patience lets wait for a nice correction/pull back and then we will be ready to issue several higher risk plays. While the markets are ripe for a correction they are not ready to crash yet as the big boys are just sitting and watching the game from the sidelines. In addition none of our psychological indicators have issued a sell (we are paying more attention to these indicators then our Technical indicators at this point in time). Finally the Dow Jones utilities appear to have put in a bottom and which suggest that after a correction the Dow Jones Industrials will most likely follow suite. I spoke to John Tyler yesterday and he stated that he has been busy trying to spot signs of distribution in the NYSE and Dow but has been unable to find anything so far. This is yet another bullish confirmation for the short to intermediate term time frames. Keep building cash for as all our long term subscribers know when the landscape looks good we come out with a flurry of new plays.

Notes on some of our plays


This chap certainly tested everyone's patience including us to the limit; formerly known as STUOF it did absolutely nothing for almost 2 years and for most of that time it was in the red. Finally in the last two weeks or so it has surged over 200% from its lows and most of our subscribers should be up about a 100%. So those of you that have your profit limits locked in at a 100% or below should have automatically sold all or half of your positions. The rest of you that are waiting for our signal to exit continue holding for now. We can't help but recall an email from one of our subscribers who said that the owners in both companies STUOF and RTHXF were somehow related and perhaps they were planning this merger all along. The new company has only been trading for roughly 4 months and certainly lived up to its name rolling thunder. The volume was extremely huge on Friday, which suggests that after this pull back we could witness even higher prices.


The story here is the opposite of the above this chap exploded in a really short period of time. Before it corrected today it was up roughly as much as 60% from our entry prices. We feel that more and more utilities are going to start bringing their coal power plants online and most utility companies have rather low reserves of coal. These two factors could have a huge impact on the price of this commodity. NCOC has just put in a new 52 week high if it can now trade to 11 and stay above this zone for sometime (say 18-21 days) it should be able to challenge and possibly surpass the 15.00-dollar mark.


The above chart is a weekly chart with 6 years of data. One can clearly see the nice channel formation in place. The longer the channel formation the more powerful the eventual move is. The long-term trend line shows that we have pretty strong support in the 300 ranges so it appears that prices will not dip below this point; if they do it would be a great time to run and buy more palladium

This is a monthly chart of palladium containing roughly 29 years worth of data (each bar represents one month). If one takes a close look at this chart one will notice that Palladium has been trending up during the entire 29-year period. Currently this chart is indicating that there is a small chance that palladium could dip below the 300 ranges; again based on the infancy of this bull we doubt it will stay below the 300 level for any extended period of time. So if it does happen to trade below this level run out and buy more.

Demand for Palladium is starting to surge primarily from China, as they do not see the logic of paying over 1100 dollars an ounce for Platinum when Palladium is cheaper and performs even better. We are referring to the use of Palladium and Platinum in catalytic converters and since China is set to have more cars then America in 2030 they certainly are going to go after the cheaper metal. Furthermore demand for Palladium as jewellery is starting to surge again the Chinese appear to be leading the move here. There are many other applications where palladium is vital but we are not going to list them all today; we did provide such a list several weeks ago. If for some reason we have a big break through in the Fuel cell arena this will add even more pressure to the demand side of the equation. Russia reported sometime ago that a significant portion of their reserves were actually somehow no longer there; even if this story is not true all Russia needs to cause a huge spike is hold supplies back for just a little time and prices will go through the roof. They control over 70% of the world's palladium supplies and have a major interest in still water mining the biggest palladium producer in North America. Hence the long-term outlook for palladium continues to remain bright. From a mass psychology point of view the fact that very few people are talking about this metal is indeed a very huge bonus.

Price targets for Palladium bullion (very long term targets)

If we can trade above 345 for roughly 3 months in a row then the next target would be in the 480-510 ranges.
2nd target 645
3rd target a break past 1080

Since we are posting very long term targets one has to understand that in between we are going to witness some rather deep corrections (but if you got in early these corrections will not feel that bad).

Based on the above targets we expect the following targets for SWC And PAL


It has to break past 24 on strong volume and stay above this level for at least 18 days then it should be able to challenge the 33-dollar range.

2nd target is going to be a challenge and a test of the 42-dollar price point level.

3rd target

This target is going to be extremely high compared to the other two targets. But we would not be surprised to see SWC trading close to 150 dollars if not higher one day.


The story with PAL is slightly different. In comparison to SWC it is a relatively new company so we have a limited amount of data to base our price targets on. If PAL can stay above 11 dollars for 90 days or so it should be able to easily challenge the 14.40 ranges and then will go on to put in a series of new all time highs.

Eventually we could see PAL trading in the 99-120 ranges.

Real Estate Timing

The second best time to buy real estate is when a few smart investors take advantage of the fact that Fed is embarking on an aggressive rate reduction plan; they have to understand that this plan is fake and that interests rates are purposely being forced lower just to push the consumer to spend and borrow more. This is what happened after the stock market collapsed in 2000. If you invest in this time frame and you have good credit you can pick up property for 0-5% down and then use the rental income and build up in equity to help you finance more properties. If you employ this method you should always buy income-generating properties as in 4 family plus units. With this method you could make anywhere from 200-600% in profits.

The truly spectacular time to buy property is when the Feds have embarked on a vicious rate hiking policy. However this method requires patience and discipline. It's what helped make Trump who he is today; I believe his first property went from just over 1 million dollars to over 400 million in value. The trick here is to wait for them to move from a raising rate bias to a neutral position. Or if you are familiar with trend analysis you could just look for topping action on the charts. This was the case in the 1980's; those who bought property when interest rates were peaking literally locked in several thousand-percentage points in gains. Again one should go for income generating properties. We believe that those who are patient will be provided with such an opportunity in the years to come, as the Fed will be forced to raise rates to attack the self-created Frankenstein better known as inflation.

I was talking to a Polish lady the other day that owns a multifamily unit in Brooklyn. About 20 years ago she paid about 100k for this 8 family unit. Today she collects a minimum of 8K a month on rent from this unit. So in one year she collects almost what she paid for this property 20 years ago.

Random Musings


China uses 6.5 million barrels of oil a day and the US uses 20 plus million barrels a day. In a few years it displaced Japan as the world's number 2 users of oil. Its GDP is growing at 8-10% a year. It has a population of over 1.3 billion people and many of them are dumping their bicycles and buying cars. In less than 14 years its energy needs are projected to increase by over a 150%. In 4 years China is projected to have 90 times as many cars as it had in 1990 and by 2030 it is estimated that it will have more cars then the United States. The problem is that supplies of oil are not increasing; well that's what the media is saying at least and in the end that's all that matters, as the masses believe everything they are told.

In reality there are very huge supplies of heavy oil; the reserves in the Orinoco region of Venezuela are larger then those in Saudi Arabia but because it's heavy oil these reserves are not counted. In other words when the worlds reserves of oil are calculated heavy oil reserves are not taken into consideration. By the way our play IVAN has proven technology to convert heavy oil into light oil in a process that actually generates energy so it can be used in very remote areas. We wonder why these reserves are not counted; our take is that as usual the big guys want to generate panic and thus leave less time for the masses to think. When you are in a state of constant worry you cannot think or focus on anything. Pay careful attention to the news and you will see that almost all the time this trick is employed; it's a very good psychological ploy to make sure that the masses never see the light. To be able to think and see patterns you have to be relaxed and that's why we push the concept of cutting one's stress down so much. Once you cut your stress down and are relaxed you can see through this nonsense very easily. Every disaster can be prevented but none are and the reason is always the same "money".

It is for this reason that we have always stated that one should not panic no matter how bad things look because every disaster is nothing but opportunity knocking in disguise provided you are calm enough to see it. Eventually they will start to attack these heavy oil reserves but they will wait till the very last minute to do so and then it will take at least another 6-11 years for us to see the results. Again the reasons are simple money, money, money and more money.

Light and Darkness

We are told to walk in the path of light but how about if most people misunderstood this message. Normally light is made to look as good and darkness is supposed to be bad. If most so called contrarians were really true contrarians they would question this premise, if they applied mass psychology and common sense they would most definitely question the above perceptions.

Lets examine a few facts

Science has now proven that approx 95% of the universe is black (as in darkness). So that means only 5% is in the light so as to speak. This information alone should be enough to make one think. But lets go further it has been shown that humans on average use about 5-7% of their brain capacity and geniuses at most 15%. Hence it's safe to assume that the most advanced human being would only have knowledge of maybe 0.05% if not less of this 5% of the universe that is in the light.

Next the reason most people are afraid of the dark is because they fear the unknown, but if you fear the unknown then how can it ever become known. So in essence the fear is irrational, as it's based on pure hear say or superstitious beliefs, twisted religious beliefs etc. Now just with the above info a contrarian would say perhaps the darkness holds the secret, as 95% of the universe is black. How could you possibly learn anything by just studying 5% of what's out there; that the equivalent of some jackass reading one book on investing and assuming he is the worlds best investor.

Lets dig even deeper and use knowledge that is available to anyone that might want to dig deeper. An object gets its colour by absorbing all the other colours except the colour it reflects so a blue object is blue because it absorbs all the other colours except blue. Taking this one step further we could actually say that the darkness is the path of light simply because it absorbs all the light and reflects black and the light is actually darkness because it absorbs all the black and reflects just the light.

If something is absorbing light then one would have a better chance of finding the answer there then something that is absorbing darkness only. I mean we don't go to idiots and ask them for advice do we; idiots absorb everything else besides knowledge and the opposite can be said for geniuses.

Okay this was a simple mental exercise and an examination of the facts using simple data that is available to most individuals. We are making no assertions whatsoever. Draw your own conclusions. All we wanted to do was offer you a different view and possibly push you to put your thinking caps on.

High cost of Petrol

One minute you have the talking heads in the news come out and say that high prices of petrol are not stopping people from driving huge cars. Then you dig deeper and you find stories of retired and low-income individuals skipping on some of their medications just to be able to fill their cars at the pump. One chap actually skipped on his blood pressure medications and passed out; he could have died and it makes us wonder why he would risk his life for petrol. He could have sold his big car for a small Japanese car or done the unimaginable and maybe bought a scooter (these little buggers can go about 100 miles on a gallon of gas).

Interesting demand for scooters is actually increasing it appears that some individuals are deciding to find a solution rather then sitting on the curb and whining about gas prices that are still one of the cheapest in the world Full Story

Another interesting point is that pawn shops (this term is not used that often in the rest of the world so for subscribers outside the United States. A pawn shop is where someone takes in something of value and borrows against it usually at high interest rate or simply sells it for next to nothing) are witnessing a surge in business and a lot of this has to do with people pawning their stuff so they can buy more petrol. It amazes us how it takes so long for people to do something simple. If the price of petrol is too high get rid of the big car and get something smaller. The price of Petrol in Turkey is now in excess of 10 dollars per gallon and they are still surviving.

Census: Americans Are Fleeing Big Cities

WASHINGTON - Americans are leaving the nation's big cities in search of cheaper homes and open spaces farther out.

Nearly every large metropolitan area had more people move out than move in from 2000 to 2004, with a few exceptions in the South and Southwest, according to a report being released Thursday by the Census Bureau. Northeasterners are moving South and West. West Coast residents are moving inland. Midwesterners are chasing better job markets. And just about everywhere, people are escaping to the outer suburbs, also known as exurbs.

"It's a case of middle class flight, a flight for housing affordability," said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. "But it's not just white middle class flight, it's Hispanics and blacks, too." Full Story

The masses always react towards the end of the cycle. They are making two key mistakes

  1. Owning a house is actually the so-called American dream concept; in reality it should be called the American nightmare. Owning a house makes sense only when you can put up over 20% of the cost as a down payment (note you don't have to do this but you should be in a position where you can do this) and have adequate funds to pay at least 12 months worth of mortgage payments in case you lose your job. One can actually make more money by putting the money one loses to interest to work in the market or some other better paying investment (approx 90% of the monthly payments for the first 10 years are nothing but pure interest payments, in the first 3 years it can be as high as 95%).
  2. They are moving right at the top or close to the top of the housing market. If they wanted to move they should have made this decision earlier this way they could have actually made some money on the house they are now going to buy in the suburbs. In addition they are forgetting about the concept of renting. To many now renting is a bad word so from a mass psychology perspective the best deal in real estate right now is to rent and sell your place if you are flexible. Wait for a nice pull back that will produce some beautiful bargains down the line.

On separate note it appears that more and more speculators in real estate are getting caught with their pants down. Many of them are being forced to sell these properties at a loss because they are either no longer appreciating or they cannot afford their monthly payments as most made the mistake of taking out adjustable rate mortgages.

Russia, meanwhile, launched a satellite Tuesday for Israel that the Israelis say will be used to spy on Iran's nuclear program. The satellite is designed to spot small images on the ground and would allow Israel to monitor Iran's nuclear program and long-range missiles, an Israel defense official said. Full Story

It appears that Russia is playing both sides of the game. They are supplying Iran with nuclear Technology and arms while at the same time launching a satellite for Israel so that it can spy on Iran's nuclear program. By the way this piece of news was buried under the headline "Iran Threatens to Hide Nuclear Program". If one looks at the headline one would not expect to cover this succulent piece of info under it.


Hi Sol,
Thanks for another 100% winner. I sold RTHXF today for 100% profit. Before it reached 100% profit, I did ponder if I should wait for TI to issue a sell. I decided I would be happy with 100% profit so I put my limit order in and went to lunch. I came back and was pleasantly surprised to see the order filled. It did trade a little higher but I'm still happy. Thanks Again!

The key point here is that you are implementing the profit guideline rules we published on our website. As result of being able to implement these rules it shows that you are becoming a more disciplined trader; one of the two key components to becoming a successful trader. The other is patience and this stock certainly tested everyone's patience to the limit as we held it for roughly 2 years and in just 2 weeks it moved over 200% from its low.

Finally its always good to hear success stories like this especially when they indicate that the stock was held through thick and thin and that the trader was not panicked into selling just when he/she perhaps should have been buying.

On a more positive note, it's great to see Rolling Thunder/San Telmo finally taking off. It's funny because I've always referred to that stock as my 'patience builder'. I bought my first shares in October 2004 and this is the first time it's been out of the red.

We published just two emails from the many we received concerning this stock as they both reveal two of the most important factors in the quest to become a successful trader which are Patience and discipline.

From 4/4/06 TI: "Oil is being totally driven by Geopolitical factors now; tension between the US and Iran and Venezuela continue to mount (bear in mind that these two chaps are the number 2 and 3 producers)"

some analysts propose the coming correction will ease oil price pressures. But the boone pickens of the world are betting on $150 oil. and today my mom mentioned seeing 1st news of $4 gas price.

What's your outlook for oil, and do geopolitical factors involve some form of manipulation? How do see these moves impacting oil stocks? - Does higher oil price = higher independent oil and the exploration stocks? DYN is down as the oil price climbs...

DYN is more in the power generating business; it just happens so that some of the places we use to obtain sector information list it as being in the independent oil and natural gas sector. Well we can already see the impact on stocks such as RTXHF formerly STUOF a stock that was nothing but a dog for a long time suddenly explode to the upside in the last few days. The situation right now is completely geopolitical and it looks like we are drawing closer and closer to a full-blown war with Iran. We stated that the Iraq war was a blunder and warned against the huge problems that we would face before even one bomb was dropped. In comparisons to Iraq, Iran is going to be a monumental problem (we will talk more about this in the next issues. One of the things we will look at is the sophisticated missile they have that can sink a huge Aegis war ship and there is no defense against this).

Remember in every situation the masses can be right for sometime and this appears to be one of them however the masses will never collect on their profits; as usual they will wait to long and end up holding an empty bucket. If we drop one bomb in Iran oil prices will probably spike by 12-21 dollars in one day; then Iran will attack by closing the straits of Hormuz and oil prices could spike another 30-60 dollars. So its possible we could see oil trading over 100 dollars easily if any one of the above events unfolds.

The part that no one is paying attention to though is that consumption will drop severely across the world and then oil prices will pull back very hard (normal correction when you draw in trend lines); it will only look and feel hard only to those who got in late. In the end oil prices come down to a supply and demand issue and when supply drops dramatically prices will drop just as fast. This severe correction will then provide what we like to call a mouth-watering opportunity in this sector. When will this happen at this point in time your guess is as good as ours as it is very hard to time markets that are being controlled by geo political factors.

If we attack Iran it will go down in history as one of the biggest military mistakes ever. Oil prices will spike, the major oil route will be closed, terrorist activity will sky rocket and Iran's nuclear program will continue but in deep secrecy. (Again next week we will look at why attacking Iran will really in no way stop their nuclear program)


Due to back injury last week I was unable to speak to Dr Janice and her partner in regards to the finer details of making the materials from this seminar available to TI subscribers. Hopefully we will be able to get all the details worked by this week. As soon as we have everything worked out an email will be sent out to all our subscribers.

User name tacticalinvestor (all lower case)
Pass code phoenix

User name and pass codes to the Enhanced privacy section; use the same entrance as above but enter these codes instead.

User name Tactical (first letter here is upper case)
Pass code certain

If you have any questions please email us at and or to the email address from which the market update was sent out.

All charts provided courtesy of

We have another common sense type question.

A father looks at his son and says the following "what are you going to do with your life" or another variation of this could be "what are you planning on doing with your life."

The answer is so simple that you will kick yourself when we publish it next week.

The answer in long form is 9 words in short form its 5 words.



Sol Palha

Author: Sol Palha

Sol Palha

Sol Palha is a market analyst and educator who uses Mass Psychology, Technical Analysis and Esoteric Cycles to keep you on the right side of the market. He and his partners are on the web at

The information contained herein is deemed reliable but no guarantee is made about its completeness or accuracy. The reader accepts this information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The author/publisher may or may not have a position in the securities and/or options relating thereto, & may make purchases and/or sales of these securities relating thereto from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Neither the information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein. The author/publisher of this letter is not a qualified financial advisor & is not acting as such in this publication. Investors are urged to obtain the advice of a qualified financial & investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.

Copyright © 2004-2016 Sol Palha, All rights reserved.

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright ©