The Elliott Wave Pattern in the U.S. Dollar and Gold

By: Robert McHugh | Sun, May 7, 2006
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M-3 remains hidden by the Fed, so that We the People can't know what they are doing. As a result, the U.S. Dollar has now broken sharply below the lower boundary of its rising trend-channel that started in early 2005, meaning we have confirmation that corrective primary degree wave (2) up is finished, and the start of a nasty decline, likely into the 60's, has started.

Worse, the Dollar's 50 day moving average is 88.97, and has broken decisively below the declining 200 day moving average at 89.44. The last time the 50 day crossed decisively below the 200 day, after being significantly above it, was in 2002. What followed was a 30 percent decline in the value of the Dollar. Cross-unders when both averages are declining are particularly dangerous developments. Clearly, the underlying fundamental foundation for all economics in this decade is a purposeful devaluation of the U.S. Dollar by the Master Planners for some insane reason that only a mad scientist inhaling gallons of formaldehyde could possibly understand. "Hey Brownie, you're doin' a great job."

Also troublesome is a Bearish Head & Shoulders top formation. A decisive break below 88 has confirmed the pattern, raising the probability that the minimum downside target of 84.50 will be reached. But if that happens, we are going a lot lower. It got as low as 85.00 on Friday, May 5th. The Elliott Wave labeling for this scenario has the Dollar declining inside Micro degree wave 3 down inside Minuette degree wave iii down of a Minor degree 1 down. Two small degree waves three of three portend more downside, and the likely fulfillment of the Head and Shoulder's downside target.

Gold has followed the path we annotated last week, and hit another high Friday at $684.91, and is now up 46 percent since the Fed announced it would hide M-3. That is no small coincidence. It is thrusting in an extended Minuette degree wave v up of Minor degree 5 up. The Fed has underestimated the importance of transparency.

Wave fives tend to extend in precious metals, and we now have two wave fives happening at the same time, of Minuette and Minor degrees. The EW labeling shows Gold broke higher from its recent Minuette degree wave iv correction, a Flat 3-down, 3-up, 5-down pattern. Underway is a Minuette wave v of a Minor degree wave 5 -- but still within the Intermediate wave 3 up. This is all very exciting for Gold bugs. We have a long way to go on the upside before a multi-month decline, the Intermediate degree wave 4, hits.

The recent shorter-term moves are shown at the top of the next page in a close-up shot of the waves. We count a Sub-micro degree wave {1} up, {2} down, and {3} up complete. Submicro degree wave {4}'s Symmetrical Triangle correction completed and {5} up has started with a bang, rising into a Micro degree 1 of Minuette v up top. This is just forming the first of an eventual five waves of Micro degree in process. I don't want to get crazy here in a projection, but based upon proportionality, Gold could be headed for $800 an ounce -- or higher -- before the Intermediate wave 3 up completes and a multi-month correction begins.

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John 6:32-35



Robert McHugh

Author: Robert McHugh

Robert D. McHugh, Jr. Ph.D.
Main Line Investors, Inc.

Robert McHugh

Robert McHugh Ph.D. is President and CEO of Main Line Investors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and can be reached at The statements, opinions and analyses presented in this newsletter are provided as a general information and education service only. Opinions, estimates and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained in this newsletter is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Neither Main Line Investors, Inc. nor Robert D. McHugh, Jr., Ph.D. Editor shall be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided.

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