Which Way?

By: Dominick | Sat, Sep 9, 2006
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In my September 3rd update I stated:

"We now have resistance above us at a 1317 Fib level. If we take that out, the 1360 level will look very realistic! Until we do take out 1317, I'm a bit cautious since many things that we monitor are finally flashing caution. We also need to watch the possible repeat of the 2000 top, where it made a high in March and then a lower high the day after Labor Day.

The easiest thing for the market to do next week is to rally, and then fail, putting in a reversal day. Even then, you need to make sure it's not another pullback within the rally from June. A turn next week, that finds support into my CIT date of September 22nd, might just set up that last blast. If not, you might be seeing a top next week. Sentiment readings still argue that a final top isn't in yet."

The S&P immediately ran to challenge the 1317 target on the expected date! It made a new high 2 points below my target and gapped down the next morning. After a 22-point drop, it caught a bid on Thursday and is now trying to claw its way back a bit.

In the chart below you can see that Tuesday's low was also just a point and a half from my support at 1290.50. Even though it all played out to plan, I'm not convinced we topped just yet. At the same time, I don't think we tested the 1290.50 support enough to continue higher.

Next week we will expect to do some more testing of our support area, knowing it might fail only to reach the proposed market structure target. If the S&P's are about to launch another high, I would want them to start from lower levels. Those levels, and the line in the sand for this pattern to be correct, are reserved for TTC members.

The chart below is of the OEX that I had shown last week. It went into an exact target that we patiently waited for. It also made its top on Tuesday and then gapped down on Weds. Even though I would have liked an overthrow of its upper trend line there is no question that this market has qualified to have topped. How the next leg down respects its support will tell us if it too will attempt to put in another final high.

The support areas for this expected move down are not our typical every day numbers. The direction that we take from these targets can have many Elliotticians running for the erasers.

The bottom line is that before my next target date of September 22nd, we might have a power struggle among bulls and bears that will lead to a very powerful move.

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Author: Dominick

a.k.a. Spwaver

This update is provided as general information and is not an investment recommendation. TTC accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses resulting from action taken based on the contents of its charts, commentaries, or price data. Securities and commodities markets involve inherent risk and not all positions are suitable for each individual. Check with your licensed financial advisor or broker prior to taking any action.

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