By: Boris Chikvashvili | Tue, Oct 3, 2006
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First, we have done real well with out recommendations. Visit our Blog to see when and how we got out from previous recomendations. Also see the updated profile. Many requested to update it. http://boris.blogspot.com

Second, All numbers given before are in force.

Dow resistance 11820.
SPX resistance 1342.
BKX resistance 114.60.
JPM Resistance 48.85.

Biased towards short in the Stock indices, but could go long if conditions require.

Spike in OIL, ALA 1973

Oil spike of the 1973 type is a possibility. I am in total agreement with article by Clive Maund http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=5986 about the probability of such event. But I disagree with many if not most of his arguments leading into it.

Clive makes a point that "elites" in USA, UK & ISRAEL are behind the instigation of such possibilitites. While I do not hold anybody and anything beyond scrutiny, I sincerely doubt a lot of "facts" presented by Clive. On the other hand he never bothered to present any of the facts below.

As someone that lives in Israel, I can see first hand that...

1) Iranian mullahs and president Ahmedinjad have repeatedly stated their goal is the distraction of Israel. Does Clive mention this even once?

2) Israeli population was polled before the Yom Kippur holiday and asked if they are afraid of their existence in this country. 55% responded yes.

3) Even though Israel left Gaza, there are KASAM rockets fired many times daily from there into Israel. The "elite" is asked to take care of that by the population that is threatening to take the matter in their own hands if government does not.

4) Even though Israel left Lebanon 6 years ago. The stated goal of Nassralla and Hizbollah is to eliminate Israel as a country.

5) The Palestinian Government, not the president is composed of Hamas, which has never renounced the goal of violent distraction of Israel.

6) The Egyptian Foreign Minister has loudly and publicly accused Iran of fermenting the war atmosphere in the Middle East Region.

7) Jews have never described Arabs as monkeys and pigs, Arabs did.

8) Shia is on the ascendancy in this region and they are not satisfied with having what is theirs. They are thinking big - control the majority of OIL supply of the world.

9) Now he must either lump Iranians with the "elite" and they are all driving OIL prices higher or he must agree that If Ahmedinjad is as deranged as he sounds then he needs to be eliminated before he is able to do what he is planning.

10) If survival sounds to you like "elitism" then so be it but beyond the real complexity of the issues you are touching there is a life and lifestyle of the West that is at stake.

11) I would like for Clive to have a neighborhood, where he is outnumbered by 100 in population, territory and wealth (over trillion $Dollars flowing to Arab countries a Year). Also I would like to see how would he respond when he finds out that they are mostly fanatic and declared openly about his/family distraction. Would he go "elites" to defend himself?

12) Even moderate Arabs understand what is at stake. Wake up my friend before it is too late.

I would like to ask Clive to come to Israel live in this county and then tell me we are an "elite". I wonder if Clive is really well traveled and understands the facts. Perhaps after this response he will try to be a bit more careful about presenting his unverified opinions as "facts".



Author: Boris Chikvashvili

Boris Chikvashvili

In short... I was supposed to be a theoretical physicist (Russia+Jerusalem Hebrew University, MS Physics, with distinction, toyed with QUARKS). Somewhere on the road to PHD I have discovered, first the Computers - at Carnegie Mellon University (MS EE, Fathered UNIX, adopted WINDOWS), and second Finance on Wall Street.President ITI,(Computer/Finance Consulting Firm) Consulted AT&T,IBM,SUN,CITIBANK,JP MORGAN, LEHMAN, MICROSOFT. Designed/implemented Trading Systems - BLOOMBERG LLP. There is nothing more to say professionally speaking.

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