Today's Jobs Data is Yesterday's "Trick or Treat" on Tomorrow's Elections
Have you ever wanted to be the Fed Governor - arguably, one of the most powerful people in the world? Here's a little simulation game that we have found amusing on this post US jobs data afternoon.
Control inflation and unemployment by adjusting interest rates and hopefully by the time your term is done, your performance will be evaluated favorably.
Play this game all day long but you won't see a 5-year low in the unemployment rate after 17 consecutive interest rate hikes. And if Bernanke was jovial after having timed the inflation curve perfectly, chances are that he is not smiling today.
So how do we justify today's sharp decline to 4.4% - a figure beyond anyone's (bond market and FOMC included) expectations? Incompetence in measurement at the Bureau of Labor Statistics is certainly a possibility, best assessed by an immediate response from a futures trader quoted on CNBC this morning: "If this country was run as a corporation, the executive would be wearing an orange jumpsuit". But if this really is an attempt to manipulate public opinion heading into next week's midterm election, whoever is behind this not-so-subtle scam must be counting on one obtuse electorate.
We don't buy this rose-colored view for a second and will look to fade this dollar rally at the first hint of exhaustion. Having formulated our analysis around the Elliott Wave Theory, today's USD gains fit perfectly into our wave count of an ABCDE type of consolidation followed by a wave (5) retreat in the dollar index. Yesterday, we have prepared our subscribers for a dollar rally on stronger than expected NFP. We have since taken profit on the majority of our long position and expect this wave e to be characteristically short. The result is the likely further decline of the dollar index.