Slight Adjustment to Dow Target
Reference the article from last weekend "calling" Dow 13,067. Now that I am able to use $Gold instead of GLD on Stockcharts, and looking at support for gold in the 603-605 area, I am refining the Dow target. I look for resistance in the Dow-Gold ratio to kick in at the 21.50 area (21.5 ounces per Dow unit). Incidentally, I noted here yesterday that I was not breaking out the party horns for the miners and now you see why. XAU 138 is still wide open during the next couple weeks. 605 Gold X 21.5 Dow units = 13,007 for the nominal Dow before this foolishness concludes. This would allow the Street's bonusees to ride off into the sunset, gains in hand and give yet more time for the public to take notice of the party they are missing out on.
Another refinement of the analysis I would like to note is that although I gave the market a few weeks before topping, it does not mean that there will be an immediate or even semi-near term dive. I reviewed the Gold-Silver ratio from the late 90's and that ratio made a major top 2 years before the market's eventual major top. I think the helium (inflation) bloated porker will not be so lucky this time, but thus far it has proven all naysayers wrong.
To summarize, I am looking for Gold 605 & Pig 13,007 in the next few weeks followed by a top of some sort in the Dow (vs. gold and quite possibly nominally). At this point I may at least re-institute the stance of long gold complex hedged by shorts on the broad market. This is one person's tact (and is really more of a general outline despite the very finite targets) but we must all go by our own analysis, gut and b/s detector. I listen to a lot of people, give weight to a lot of analysis, but in the end my moves are mine. Keep that in mind when deciding whether to give what I or anyone else writes any merit or not. And again, see terms & conditions here. I do not take lightly the idea of putting out information that others may consider in their decision making process and you should not take lightly your responsibility to weigh all information against what you think. Do not blindly follow anyone, I implore you.
Thus likely ends my career as a year-end market prognisticator. Nobody really knows what will happen, especially those with something to sell or gain by influencing people. Just ask the guy from the boiler room who called me a couple weeks ago trying to pitch silver to me at $14.
Good luck, Merry Christmas and happy holidays all.