Gold Shocker! "Rising Prices a Bullish Sign"

By: Adrian Ash | Tue, Feb 13, 2007
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"...There's a glib idiocy at work in the way Wall Street and the media cover the gold market..."

Spot gold hit $669.50 per ounce in Europe on Tuesday. In the futures market, the April contract rose $673.

Cue this nugget of wisdom from Reuters:

"Gold was also rising in other currencies, usually seen as a bullish sign."

Now hold that thought for a moment. For it's not just newswire hacks tripping over the idea of ex-Dollar gold prices and making fools of themselves today. Professional investors, paid to forecast the market, are happy to show this same glib idiocy, too.

"Gold in Japanese Yen and Euro terms are leading/confirming the onset of potentially more substantial upside," said a technical analyst at Barclays Capital in London in a note earlier.

Good work, Sherlock! Gold has been rising against all major currencies since Jan. 4. But you'd never know it relying on Wall Street, the City or the mainstream media for your news.

Priced in Euros, gold broke back above €500 at the end of last month. Against the Canadian Dollar, gold is now trading at its highest level since mid-May '06. Versus the Australian Dollar, gold has reached its highest level since June 16, trading above A$863 per ounce earlier today.

And against the Japanese Yen, gold overnight in Asia touched a fresh 23-year high at more than ¥81,500 per ounce.

But our man at Barclays, a technical analyst no less, now reckons the ex-Dollar gold price "confirms" what could "potentially" be more "upside" in...well...in the gold price!

Rising prices are a bullish sign, in other words. Which is about as empty an analysis as the City of London will ever give you.

"At Royal Bank of Canada, we trade gold bullion off our foreign exchange desks rather than our commodity desks," says Anthony S. Fell, chairman of RBC Capital Markets, "because that's what it is - a global currency, the only one that is freely tradable and unencumbered by vast quantities of sovereign debt and prior obligations.

"It is also the one investment and long-term store of value that cannot be adversely impacted by corrupt corporate management or incompetent politicians," he adds - "each of which is in ample supply on a global basis."

In short, says Fell, "don't measure the Dollar against the Euro, or the Euro against the Yen, but measure all paper currencies against gold, because that's the ultimate test."

Not that Reuters or Barclays Capital can grasp this idea. The Dollar-price of gold is all that matters there. And cast as nothing but the anti-Dollar, gold is just one little challenge to Dollar hegemony - no better or worse than the Euro, for instance. Cast as just another function of Dollar strength or weakness, gold is ultimately subordinate to the greenback - and always will be, according to the mainstream finance industry's logic.

"The Dollar [today] posted losses against major rivals," says another newswire, "thereby increasing demand for gold." If only it were that simple!

South Africa is pumping 25% more Rand into the world than there were a year ago...Indian Rupees are swelling at a rate of more than 19% annually...and the supply of Sterling rose 12.8% in December. Incredibly, that rate of growth was a 15-month low for the British currency!

In the Eurozone, meantime - now responsible for more cash by number and value than the United States - broad money supply rose 9.7% at the end of 2006 from Dec. 2005, up from an 8.5% annualised rate in Nov. So whatever the US Dollar might do - and no matter what the missing M3 data would tell us about the US money supply if Washington still published them - the increased demand for gold is a global phenomenon driven by a global flood of money and credit.

Yen, Euros, Sterling or Yuan...who cares? Gold is much more than just the anti-Dollar. And the opposite of all currency risk is fast gaining new friends today.

 


 

Adrian Ash

Author: Adrian Ash

Adrian Ash
BullionVault.com

Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK's leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is the head of research at BullionVault, where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

About BullionVault

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