CNBC Europe Report

By: Bill McLaren | Mon, Mar 5, 2007
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LET'S LOOK AT THE FTSE DAILY CHART

Last week I again pointed to the 144 calendar time period that could bring in an important top but felt as long as it could hold the lows of the previous week the index would hold the trend. Last week broke the weekly support and gave a fast trend down. Since the 144 cycle proved itself for the top there are further vibrations in time associated with that time period. Those windows are Tuesday 6th March and very important 24th of March. Then 5th, 11th, 29th of April and 23rd May. This vibration will carry out through July and we'll look at the later dates if this continues to prove out. The number of instance this index has gone from low to high or high to low or low to low in 144 calendar days is amazing and analyst should verify what I am saying.

The pattern for a significant low for the index will come one of three ways by breaking to a new low and recovering as occurred in June or March 2003. Or it will spike down and show two higher lows or a spike down a 3 or 4 day rally and a struggling trend down of 7 to 12 trading days to produce a higher low. A pattern like a double bottom is very unlikely.

Yes this high could have completed the bull campaign but there is not enough evidence to confirm that scenario, yet. Tuesday is a chance for a low but that would likely be a low for a counter trend rally. A more likely date for a low would be 36 calendar days from high.

LET'S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 DAILY CHART

Last week we also looked at the Dow Composite which was in an obvious exhaustion trend up. I indicated when that trend was complete it would be immediately followed by two or more large or wide range days down and possibly complete the bull campaign and that is what occurred. This trend has exhausted as I described last week.

I've said the market rally would end on a 90 calendar time period and this was 86 days. If there is a bear trend starting (and that is a very big IF) the significant lower high will be April 12th. I believe it is more likely when this panic move down is complete the index will test the high, distribute a 30 to 60 calendar days and then start a bear trend. If that rally occurs it will also be 90 days.

We could see a bounce from 1370 but I wouldn't anticipate a significant low until at least 1340 down to 1326. The largest previous decline was 104 points and since this index has a very high probability of matching previous move that also presents a possibility.

The pattern for the low will be exactly the same as described for the FTSE. If this is not a bear campaign the possible dates for a low are March 19 to 21 and 28 +- a day.

 


 

Bill McLaren

Author: Bill McLaren

Bill McLaren
McLaren Report

Disclaimer: This message is for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice nor an invitation to buy or sell securities. The views are the personal views of the author. Before acting on any of the ideas expressed, the reader should seek professional advice to determine the suitability in view of his or her personal circumstances.

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