4/15/2007 10:28:40 AM
We have two Fib projections that are calling for higher highs.
Stock Barometer Analysis
The barometer remains in Buy Mode, cruising along towards our next key reversal date.
The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction or slope of the Stock Barometer helps determine our outlook on the market's direction. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. The black line is a 5 day moving average of the barometer and may be used to confirm changes in direction. All the information contained in this email is considered in making our calls.
Stock Barometer Cycle Time
Monday will be day 6 in our up cycle.
The Stock Barometer signals follow 5, 8, 13, 21 and sometimes 34 day Fibonacci cycles that balance with 'normal' market cycles. Knowing where you are in the current market cycle is important in deciding how long you expect to maintain a position.
Potential Cycle Reversal Dates
2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6. We publish these dates up to 2 months in advance.
April 20th is Options Expirations, right in line with our next key reversal date of April 21st.
My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer cycle times. However, due to their accuracy I post the dates here. These dates are used to influence how quickly we issue a buy or sell signal.
2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates based on 'other' cycle work were 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.
The following work is based on my spread/momentum indicators for the QQQQ, SPY, XAU, GLD and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. I provide the spread indicator charts at least weekly and when they deliver reversal signals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.
QQQQ & SPY Spread Indicator
The SPY Spread Indicator remains in Buy Mode, above zero.
The QQQQ Spread Indicator moved to Sell Mode, above zero. The short term line turned lower and the intermediate line was already moving lower.
The QQQQ and SPY Spread Indicators will yield their own buy and sell signals and may be in Buy and Sell Mode that is different from the Stock Barometer.
Gold & Silver Sector Index Spread Indicator (Index:XAU.X)
The XAU and Gold Spread Indicators moved back into Buy mode, above zero.
The dollar Spread Indicator remains in Sell Mode, below zero.
I monitor Gold in the form of GLD and the XAU as well as the US Dollar Index as a general guide to the overall health of the US Economy and the markets, as well as to assist us in the entry of positions in our Gold Stock Service.
Bonds Spread Indicator (AMEX:TLT)
The Bond Spread Indicator remains in Buy Sell Mode, above below zero.
I include bonds in our studies and use Lehman's 20 year ETF, as the direction of bonds can have an impact on the stock market. Normally, as bonds go down, stocks will go up and as bonds go up, stocks will go down.
Supporting Secondary Chart
I have over 100 technical indicators, some that are widely followed and some that are proprietary. These indicators break down the market internals, sentiment and money flow and give us unique insight into the market. I feature at least one here each day in support of our current outlook.
Summary of Daily Outlook
We remain in Buy Mode as the Qs moved traded the trend line with a modest .2% move Friday. Take a look at the first Fibonacci projection, we've already broken the 61.8% mark, and I see no problem reaching the 78.6% mark for the first projection (which is almost on top of the 61.8% mark for the second Fib projection). If those marks are hit, I see no problem in reaching the 100% projection marks and forming a double top with the February highs.
After that, we'll be looking at a break lower coordinating with the 9 month cycle - that leads us into August.
As always, if you have any questions or comments, feel free to email me at Jay@stockbarometer.com.