CNBC Europe

By: Bill McLaren | Thu, May 17, 2007
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LET'S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 DAILY CHART

I've forecast this as the last leg of this bull campaign and could end by July 12th plus or minus a few days. My forecast also called for the index to consolidate last week and this week and start the final drive up next Monday. My original forecast called for a price between 1521 and 1529, but historically that would be a small exhaustion leg and unless there is a large decline this week the price level seems low. But historically this has been a very weak 4 plus year bull campaign. If the index did the normal 15% exhaustion leg the index would hit 1568. There is a small probability a high could be hit around the 27th but the 12th of June appears a much higher probability. Consensus is very close to giving a sell signal and could do so within the next few weeks if the index advances into June. The index could run down to 30 points from high and match the largest previous move down.

LET'S LOOK AT THE NASDAQ

The Russell 2000 is still trading below its February high and the NASDAQ just dropped below the February high as the Dow and S&P 500 are well above their February highs. The largest previous correction was 63 points in 4 days. Because of the retest of the high it is difficult to count the days as they could be 4 or 6. If the wide range down day didn't exhaust the move down then it will likely drops to the price level of the May 1st low. This will overbalance price and time and give the next rally a probability to fail. These indexes should be diverging from the Dow and S&P if the market is going into a top.

LET'S LOOK AT THE CAC 40

Most of the stock indexes appear to be running out the same cycles. You can see the last 90 calendar day low to high cycle was a weak trend that ended in February. This current trend is exhaustive in nature and the 90 calendar day time from the last low expirers on June 12th and that looks like it will end this exhaustion leg of the bull campaign. On occasion an index will top on 180 days from low but that time probability usually has a 90 day low to low and not 90 low to high as occurred here. So I still believe June 12 is the date to end the bull campaign in the European index as it is with the US stock indexes.

I had previously indicated if the current rally in crude oil from the obvious low was weak, it could set up a significant drop in oil and could be the catalyst for the final drive up in stocks. But the rally is not looking weak and if Crude cannot roll over today and run hard down tomorrow it would not be a weak rally and could then run back and test the last highs.

 


 

Bill McLaren

Author: Bill McLaren

Bill McLaren
McLaren Report

Disclaimer: This message is for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice nor an invitation to buy or sell securities. The views are the personal views of the author. Before acting on any of the ideas expressed, the reader should seek professional advice to determine the suitability in view of his or her personal circumstances.

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