Wednesday's Action Pivotal in S and P

By: Mike Paulenoff | Tue, May 29, 2007
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There were plenty of cross-currents (otherwise known as "noise") in Tuesday's trading. Although I am not impressed with the day's action, no significant damage was inflicted on the uptrend, while the relatively strong final hour of trading argued for additional strength Wednesday morning.

If such strength materializes, the bulls may be back in business with power. With that in mind, have a look at my final update for today's session, which reviews a particular perspective of the SPY's.

Last Thursday's decline in the S&P 500 and its SPY exchange-traded fund failed to break below the 9 and 20 adaptive moving averages (AMAs), and in fact appears to have provided another support plateau within the still powerful and intact upmove off of the March 24 low at 136.75 in the SPY.

However, let's notice that the moving averages are within about 20 cents of one another, which leaves their position vulnerable to a price breakdown in the absence of upside acceleration almost immediately.

Thus far, the Friday-Tuesday rally appears to me to be a bit sluggish, given the price and moving average juxtaposition, which is why I am placing a lot of emphasis on Wednesday's action. A strong up-day likely will motor the SPY's to new highs (above 153.50) on the way towards my next optimal target at 160.

Conversely, inability of the SPY to put more distance between price and the moving averages will argue for another loop to the downside that tests and likely breaks last Thursday's low at 150.74 and then likely a break of the moving averages as well. Such a scenario would be very negative near-term.



Mike Paulenoff

Author: Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the (, a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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