Silver Market Update
Originally published June 9th, 2007.
The outlook for silver at this time is remarkably similar to that for gold and for the same reason - they are both threatened by a looming substantial rise in the dollar, which if it occurs, as now looks likely, will result in both gold and silver going into retreat and leaving behind large Double Tops on their charts.
As the charts for both metals are so similar the arguments set out in the Gold Market update are almost equally applicable to silver, especially those relating to the dollar, so there is no need to repeat them here - readers are referred to the Gold Market update.
The chief difference between the gold and silver charts is that, up until a week or two ago, the silver chart was more obviously toppy than the gold chart, with silver making a succession of lower highs since its February peak, and breaking below its long-term uptrend line over a month ago, whereas gold only broke below its long-term uptrend line just last week. Like gold, the silver price and its 200 and 300-day moving averages are bunched tightly together, which normally indicates a critical technical situation that breeds a big move. However, with silver there is a clearer line of support at and above the January low, in the $12.20 - $12.50 zone, failure of which would be expected to lead to rapid drop to the major support in the $10 area.
Like gold, silver is now acutely vulnerable to a sizeable dollar rally, which is a growing probability for reasons set out in the Gold Market update. With its long-term moving averages now having pulled up beneath the price a big move can be expected soon.