The Coppock Curve Buy Signals of 4/28/78 and 5/30/03

By: Gerald Hoopes | Fri, Jun 6, 2003
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A previous communication showed that the two deep Monthly DJIA Coppock Curve buy signals of 4/28/78 and 5/30/03 were the only ones since the 1920's not to be preceded within 600 trading days by at least one instance of the smoothed CI-NCI Ratio dipping to 0.9500.

Are these two signals uniquely akin in any other respect? Consider the time path generated on a scatter chart by plotting the smoothed CI-NCI Ratio against the inverted and smoothed NYSE TRIN, from 12/1/61 to 5/30/03, with both smoothings accomplished by applying six 10-day moving averages. At first glance that time path appears unintelligible.

Of the 8 deep and very deep Monthly DJIA Coppock Curve buy signals since 12/1/61, 5 deep ones (1/31/63, 4/28/67, 8/31/70, 9/30/82, and 10/31/88) were preceded by one dip in the smoothed CI-NCI Ratio to 0.9500 within 600 trading days of the signal; and 1 very deep one (1/31/75) was preceded by 2 such dips. Of interest in these 6 cases are those trading days from the date the smoothed CI-NCI Ratio (last) reached 0.9500 (to the downside) to the date of the signal itself. Highlighting those 6 time spans 2 at a time on the chart reveals 3 distinct patterns.

We know the two remaining signals (4/28/78 and 5/30/03) were not preceded within 600 trading days by any dips in the smoothed CI-NCI Ratio to 0.9500. Of interest in each of these 2 cases are the 600 trading days comprising the time window in which 1 or more dips might have taken place but did not. Highlighting both of those time spans together on the chart reveals a 4th pattern. Thus, as to pattern too, 5/30/03 is uniquely akin to 4/28/78.

Incidentally, most of the 7 signals shown in the DJIA chart below were big winners. The 4/28/78 signal, however, was not.


Author: Gerald Hoopes

Gerald Hoopes

An explanation of the Coppock Curve can be found at How to Calculate the Coppock Curve. An archive of Geralds comments can be found in the forums at

This analysis is for academic purposes only and must not be construed as investment or trading advice.

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