Chinese Stock Investing Games
Market participants will continue their stock investing games as long as the Yen remains low.
Is the entire financial world being kept afloat by the Yen Carry?
[Ok, so yeah maybe I am infatuated with the Yen.]
Subscribers are probably sick of me showing this picture but I love it:
Chart 1- Shanghai index consolidating; Yen (bottom) about to breakout
What it shows is the high profile highly speculative Shanghai Stock Index with the Japanese Yen at the bottom.
Its cheap money and liquidity which has kept the Shanghai exchange rising. As the Yen has moved relentlessly lower, the SSEC has moved persistently higher.
Now we're at the point where the yen to dollar conversion rate may be reversing higher. A move above the blue dotted line would clinch it (and offcourse have a negative effect on the Shanghai Index as well as most other markets it should be said).
So how likely is it that the Yen is about to embark on an extended trip northwards? Fairly likely based on this long chart:
Chart 2 - Japanese Yen 37-year chart
The Japanese Yen has been in a long-term bull market since the early 70s as the balance of economic power has been shifting East.
The Yen topped out in its current upwave (iii) in the mid-90s and has been mired in a 20+ year correction. According to Elliot wave analysis the bottom of this correction (marked iv) was achieved in the late 90s and would have coincided with the previous 4th wave of intermediate degree i.e. the green circle. That looks to be in place now and the Yen has been oscillating between lateral reistaince at 1 and an upward sloping trend line (red line) now currently at approximately 0.8.
In other words, the Yen is now hitting MAJOR support which according to the bigger picture should hold. Yen weakness is now a thing of the past. Unfortunately a stronger Yen does not come at a good time for Chinese stock investing games.
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