Precious Metals and the Gold Bugs Headed Higher?
Gold finished the Minor degree wave 3 of Intermediate degree 1 up on May 12th at $730.40. Gold's Minor degree wave 4 was a Symmetrical Triangle, a consolidation pattern of the Minor degree wave 3 rally that started back in 2001 and extended into the May 12th, 2006 top. Waves a through e within wave 4 are complete. A break above $730 has confirmed that the triangle is complete, and wave 5 up is underway, and is a "buy" signal. The 50 basis point drop in the Fed Funds interest rate provided a burst of wind behind Gold's ascension, driving it above $730 quickly, as was mentioned would happen in this newsletter three weeks ago. Wave fives typically extend with precious metals, so for wave 5, $900 is not out of the realm of possibility for Gold in 2008.
Silver's performance is lagging Gold's since Silver has industrial use, and the stock market's dive is forecasting a slowing economy, which suggests industrial demand for silver may slow. However, Silver also has monetary value, so its downside should be limited. Silver finished its Minor degree wave 1 up, and it appears an Ascending Bullish Triangle is back in the picture. An alternate which is that the pattern has morphed into a wave 2-down a-b-c flat, with a truncated wave c-down. Not crazy about that labeling, but is a possibility at this time. It may have more downside left before a huge rally unfolds. A decisive breakout above 15 would confirm that wave 3 up of 5 up is underway.
Once Silver rises above $15, then it is off to the races toward $21 as wave 3 of 5 up kicks in. Wave fives typically extend in precious metals, a solid reason Silver could be headed for $21. Silver is approaching $14 as of Friday, September 28th, perhaps putting the finishing touches on wave d up.
Gold stocks could experience a minor correction of their recent amazing rally should the broad major stock averages go into decline this month. But, then the HUI should be off to the races.
The HUI bounced sharply from its latest down-leg to complete its one-year-old Symmetrical Triangle pattern. This pattern was a continuation pattern, meaning the direction of prices going into the pattern will be the same once the pattern completes -- in this case up.
That rally began in Mid-August, and the first leg, Minuette wave i up completed in mid-September. Since has been an a-down, b-up, and soon to start c-down for Minuette ii down. Then the HUI race toward $500. Given the new "buy" signal we just got in the HUI, the alternate labeling, that wave ii down was a shallow "flat" pattern is another possibility.
"Jesus said to them, "I am the
bread of life; he who comes to Me
shall not hunger, and he who believes in Me shall never thirst.
For I have come down from heaven,
For this is the will of My Father, that everyone who beholds
the Son and believes in Him, may have eternal life;
and I Myself will raise him up on the last day."
John 6: 35, 38, 40
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