Whisper Targets for the Amex Gold Bugs Index
Don't look now but the Amex Gold Bugs Index has blown through resistance at 401 (the May 2006 high) and made a run to 430 before falling back to the current 419. Based on the lack of excitement and publicity our guess is more to come.
Chart 1: HUI break out
Now mind you, a move to new highs is never a fait a compli that a breakout is at hand. Heaven knows we have endured many false breakouts over the years.
There are a few technical analysis tools one can use to determine if a breakout is for real. The most popular is a daily close 3% above the breakout level (414 in our case which has been achieved). The other is 3 consecutive daily closes above the breakout level (done). In effect, both indicators are a means of gaining confidence either through price or time.
Incidentally, we find it difficult to buy breakouts for this very reason. We never know if they are for real. We prefer to bottom pick oversold stocks - but that's just our style.
Since the probabilities now favor this breakout being the real deal, lets indulge ourselves and calculate a few potential targets.
How high will the HUI go?
Based on our Fibonacci extensions we expect 750 within 6 months to a year. How do we arrive at that?
We take the magnitude of the previous wave up (165 to 401 which is a 143% move). We multiply that by the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 to arrive at a potential wave magnitude of 88%. We then extend the top of the last wave (401) by 88% to get 750.
We say 6 months to a year because all preceding up waves have been around that duration.
Now let's get really speculative!
How about a long term target Greg?
Chart 2: HUI bull market
A technical difficulty in projecting a long-term target (based on the existing wave structure) is that it is not clear when Major Wave 1 ended and Wave 2 began.
For example, did the 2-year correction between 2004 and 2005 represent the end of wave 1 or did the top in May 2006 represent the end?
Our feeling (and it is just that) is that the entire period from 2004 to now represents a rolling correction and the end of major wave 1. We base this on the fact that these correction periods were longer than the intermediate corrections in 2001 - 2004. That is, the money presses were churning at a consistently high rate between 2004 and now and the yield curve was flattening over the period. As opposed to now when the yield curve is widening again.
That said, we calculate our target by taking the magnitude of Wave 1 as 401 minus 35 or 1000%. Multiply by the Fibonacci ratio 0.618 and we arrive at a projection for this wave of 646%
Great Greg! So how about the target?
Wait for it!
We think 3,000 is achievable by the end of 2009 (401 x (1+6.46)). That will mean several stocks rising 5x or greater.
Now we all know why we're here!
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