With the upcoming holidays, the eating season is arriving in a goodly part of world. From now till turn of calendar to 2008, food will be primary focus of many consumers. Next week is Thanksgiving in the U.S. On that day, many in the U.S. will consume as much turkey as they do in the remainder of entire year. The cost of producing those over sized birds will be at an all time high. In the years ahead will the turkey dinner fade into history as grain previously used to feed them goes to China or is used to power your car? In the years ahead, will North American consumers be able to afford that annual turkey?
Unfortunately for a lot of investors, their wealth is not keeping up with the cost of food. In the chart is plotted the weekly Base Food Index against the S&P 500. Agri-Food prices continue to rise while the return on stocks continues rather dismal. One can not eat a portfolio of stocks. The answer may be for an investor to become both defensive and on the offense. Adding Agri-Food investments to your portfolio may enhance your ability to put food on the table in the years ahead. And let us be quite frank, GOOG does not produce one grain of wheat. It can help you search for it. But, if your portfolio continues to be volatile rather than fruitful what will you do when you do find wheat on GOOG. Agri-Food investments are in the process of emerging as a dominant investment theme. Agri-Food is real. SIVs, CDOs, and whatevers are nothing more than fictions quickly moving toward the intrinsic value of all financial fictions. The successful investor of tomorrow will be researching Agri-Food today.
AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS are from Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS, publisher of Agri-Food Value View, a monthly exploration of the Agri-Food grand cycle being created by China, India, and Eco-energy. To review a recent issue write to firstname.lastname@example.org.