Making $ense Out of NonSense
The precious metals markets are killing the prices of many of the junior mining shares. What's happening and why are questions being asked by many individual investors as well as the most experienced analysts. Times like these are somewhat a mystery but yet an opportunity.
The market sentiment is terrible for many stocks and it seems there are few bids and the stocks have plummeted without merit and without regard for the company fundamentals, and the future outlook for the price of gold and silver.
Let's look at a long-term weekly chart on gold and the HUI Index.
The long-term up trend in gold is beyond question. Enough said!!
The long-term up trend in the HUI is clear but perhaps not as clear. We have a very long consolidation period which I would start at the upside breakout in December 05 around 280 and peaking around 400 in early May 2006. A long consolidation period with tops of around 360 and bottoms of 280 are clearly evident on the chart. In October, we finally broke out to the upside reaching a peak of 470 or so in November and are now back to the 400 level which was our breakout area. So now our resistance (400), now becomes support with the big question being; will it hold? While we are still very bullish on the precious metals stocks we have to be on guard to a break down in the HUI. This will not, in our view, be the end to the bull run (if a breakdown does occur), but merely one more pause/consolidation along the way.
Many investors, me included, had been looking for this recent rally to carry our mining shares to much higher prices. Unfortunately this did not happen and it is only normal to ask why? Virtually none of us have a reasonable explanation for this terrible market sentiment. Are investors fearful of a potential meltdown in the financial markets? Are they fearful of a potentially strengthening in the United States Dollar? Do they not truly believe in the long-term bull market in gold and silver and other commodities? Are they worried about the rising costs for the mining companies? All valid concerns.
Additionally, with tax-loss selling in the United States another factor driving down prices, we are finding many share prices too good to pass. As we ponder these questions, we must be aware of the fact that at times like these there are many great opportunities being given to us each day. This week, we have increased our personal positions in six different companies in the gold, silver and the uranium sector. Perhaps we are early, but we see opportunity. We would encourage those of you who are long-term investors to carefully select the shares or long-term warrants of your favorite companies and accumulate them at these bargain prices.
In times like these when the markets do not make $ense, we look aggressively for opportunities.
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