No Bottom Yet...According to Intermediate Charts

By: Mike Paulenoff | Tue, Jan 8, 2008
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A relatively impressive recovery rally during the final 30 minutes of trading, or was it? In fact, based on the pattern carved-out by the Q's, no upside reversal was recorded.

The Q's certainly "looped" down again to retest this morning's low at 47.43, which held the onslaught (at 47.47), and which has helped turn the price structure to the upside for another run at key near term resistance at 48.50/65. But unless and until that resistance area is hurdled, I will not venture into the long side of the Q's. Why?

Because my work is warning me that despite what appears to be an intraday Double Bottom amidst improved RSI momentum readings, the intermediate term technical work likely is calling the directional shots here.

In other words, until my intermediate term work shows signs of bottoming, it is just too risky to establish counter-trend long positions based on my near term work.

Looking at the S&P 500's equivalent ETF, the SPY, the current very negative juxtaposition of the 9 & 20 day AMAs shows a "Double Negative Crossover" for the first time during the entire year-long "topping" process in the SPY. By that I mean that since the Oct. 11th high at 157.52, the 9 day AMA has crossed below the 20 day AMA twice without confirming an intervening positive crossover rally phase.

This "double negative" juxtposition of the AMAs argues for more acute weakness than the prior declines in July-Aug and in Oct- Nov. My optimal next target zone for the SPY decline is 136.20-135.80 -- if the current decline holds equidistance in comparison with the Oct-Nov decline (16.86 points).

Let's notice, however, that the target zone is beneath a 10-month support plateau, which could be extremely problematic for would-be bulls looking to establish long positions into an intermediate-term swing objective.



Mike Paulenoff

Author: Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the (, a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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