No Timing Trigger Today

By: | Tue, Jan 22, 2008
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Timing attempts to provide market equivalent returns over the long term, with a substantial reduction in variability of returns. The two components of the Timing program are EZ+Macro and Fear/Greed. This system trades rarely and splits its allocations between ETFs tracking the S&P 500, the intermediate-term U.S. Treasuries, and cash.

Information is as of the close on January 22, 2008.

Despite quite a large opening spike in the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX), the Timing plan did NOT trigger a change in model allocation from the prior update. The methodology uses the closing value of the VIX, rather than an intraday high or average intraday measurement, but this is the not the culprit behind today's "no trigger." Indeed, using the intraday high for both the S&P 500 and the VIX (the combination most likely to exceed a "buy trigger) yields a ratio still slightly below that necessary for a change in model allocation.

My opinion is that the market reached a trade-able capitulation bottom this morning.

That being said, the Timing plan isn't tracking my opinions -- it's a system that is being tracked mechanically, just as the other systems are being tracked. It could be correct while my opinion is not, or vice versa. Time will tell.

My personal trading is disclosed on this site, and is currently most in line with the Rotational system.

I reserve, and confine, the right to exercise my opinion to my personal portfolio, and not to the system portfolios which I track here. They shall remain 100% mechanical.



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