The Help Wanted Index vs. the Recession Question ...
(Posted February 1st. on our paid subscriber update)
For years, I have followed the government's Help Wanted Ad numbers. The Help Wanted Ads are a precursor as to what will be happening on Employment in the future. As such, it is an important indicator to watch relative to recession questions.
I created this chart on Saturday that shows the Help Wanted data going back to 2005. What is noteworthy, is that for the past 2 years, the December and January Help Wanted numbers have all shown a drop over the October/November numbers. The big event has been February, where the Help Wanted ads zoom up higher than the preceding 2 or 3 months.
**NOTE** This is what we want to watch for at the end of February. If the numbers come in with a similar rise to the past, then that would suggest that we will avoid a recession ... or the worse is already past ... and the stock market will act in concert to the upside with a strong rally. See chart 2 ...
How does the Help Wanted Index track with the S&P 500?
The Help Wanted Data from the above bar chart was plotted on a monthly S&P 500 chart below. (The data is released in the beginning of month for each preceding month.)
Note that it was in December that the Help Wanted Index fell ... and it fell below its support line. Is this why Institutions started selling in January?
What is important now, is what happens relative to February's Help Wanted Advertising. Will it drop again, or will it jump up like the two past years?
(The February data and chart will be posted on our paid subscriber site just as soon as it is released in early March.)