Epic Paradigm Shift Looms
Adaptive Trading and Investment Perspectives
Since we first began offering our market forecasting and analysis services
to the public some two years ago, Elliott Wave Technology has been strident
in directing our clients focus and attention to the negative wealth effects
that eroding fiat-currency's impose - along with the plausibility of epic
consequence, if and when an inevitable paradigm shift against the acceptance
of fiat-money were to ever reach critical mass. No matter where we are in
a given investment cycle, we must first recognize the inherent nature of
that environment, and then adapt our various investment postures with fitting
perspective.
Say, you wanna revolution - well, ya know
In our view, as a result of their near-100-year monopoly, and flawed mandate
to create public perception of never-ending (un)sustainable growth with price
(in)stability, monetary authorities find themselves compelled in administering
to an additional and rather absurd mandate - one which must avert an otherwise
inevitable and catastrophic credit-deflation of their own making - and they
must do so, at any and all cost. Our highly esteemed monetary authorities,
boxed in a systemic paradox of their own design, appear to have no choice
but to take their alchemy up a notch, and begin to fertilize seeds of hyperinflation
in order to save face, and assure that their obligatory mandate will be fulfilled
as agreed.
To their credit or shame - depending on one's perspective, they have successfully staved off this permanently imminent and exponentially growing deflation for more than 30-years running. The monster in which they've been so accustomed to taming - has apparently taken on such gargantuan proportion that it is now becoming acutely unmanageable. The seeds of hyperinflation are slowly taking root, and may soon begin to expose themselves to the populace, and spread unabated. Unless our monetary and political stewards begin taking immediate steps toward fostering the adoption of a sustainable, pro-active, fiscally sound and transparent set of practical transitional protocols to construct a NEW sustainable system of money and credit - the current generation will no doubt, be bearing witness in their lifetimes, to an epic paradigm shift reaching critical mass - resulting in a 21st Century revolution to abolish and supplant the present fiat-currency system of money and credit.
Good, but not good enough
Although a new incoming administration with fresh momentum for promised-change
may be considered a very good start, such positive intentions alone - unless
radical and swiftly acted upon - will not be enough to get the job done in
time. It also may be such that there is simply no practical timely solution
other than making the necessary preparations to maintain civil order, the
rule of law, and containing the masses as crisis after crises pounds the
nation toward eventual revolt.
Ain't no stoppin'us now - we're on the move
It is our further opinion that this flawed system of fiat-money and credit-creation
has long outlived its practical utility, and stands out quite clearly as
the NUMBER ONE - singular systemic cause of all systems deemed to be broken,
dysfunctional, grid-locked, intractable, or in some stage of pending breakdown
or looming collapse. If left inadequately addressed, or simply left to 20th
century business-as-usual inflationary tactics - such denials, misguided
actions, and lack of visionary leadership will ultimately threaten to impose
an acute and prolonged disruption to the well-being of civilizations across
the globe for decades to come.
Dual Voice / Singular Focus
Before we continue, we wish to point out that we communicate with two distinct
voices on occasion. Our public voice, exemplified by expression of opinion
and philosophical query, is often limited to articles such as this one. In
stark contrast, our second voice is purely analytical, and all-business.
Market based communications within our publications are strictly limited
to adherence, and utmost respect for impartial technical assessments as to
the state and progress of a wide array of broad market indices. We consider
this to be our more disciplined, essential, and relevantly applicable voice.
A voice that is steadfast, prepared, anticipatory, on-the-money, and always
on-guard.
Takin' what they're givin' cause we're workin' for a livin'
Despite its current state of pending jeopardy, and though flawed as it may
be, each of us by default - must participate and adapt to the current financial
systems construct, limitations, and constraints. It is all that we have to
work with. One of the cornerstones to our long-term investment guidance has
emphasized the general rule of thumb in guiding each of our clients to take
steps to assure that their accumulated wealth is protected against the ravages
of inflation by means of acquiring a constant and adequate percentage of
their total net worth in physical Gold and Silver bullion - under any all
market conditions. The bulk of such acquisitions were made when gold was
at or below $400 - it now appears destined to strike $1000 and beyond. Such
guidance from two-years ago was definitely worth its Gold-weight, and most
certainly worth the price of admission!
Pro-active long-term checks and balances
In framing our long-term market analysis, we have adopted a series of mechanically
based checks and balances from which to monitor adequate levels of long or
short side exposure to broad based financial indices. Our patience and discipline
in observing these trigger-points has paid off handsomely per our recent
bout of high-level profit taking - whereby we lifted 2/3rds of long side
exposure to general equities just prior to the October top. Similar mechanics
shall alert us as to when and if to take full cover, and when and if it may
be prudent to begin re-introducing exposure back to the long side of equities.
Naturally, more aggressive clients may use such barometers to build short
positions in various indices.
Global Investors must Align Perception and Reality separately
The three charts above provide a small, relatively short-term glimpse into
the early rumblings of a rather subtle paradigm-shift quietly building mass.
The comparative studies illustrate the "official" and perceived levels of
dollar denominated performance and value metrics. Below is a longer-term
data series of the three titans. In the chart below, we have provided self-explanatory
annotations as to our long-term forecast for the US dollar.
Aligning Short-Term Trading Expectations in Proper Context
Those committing themselves to short-term speculation should only do so only
if they possess adequate amounts of discretionary trading capital, patience,
tenacity, discipline, and resolve to succeed. Those seeking constant spoon-feedings
of "tell-me-what-to-do-next" guidance - neither willing nor desirous to work
for themselves, will generally end-up failing.
All too often, traders prematurely jump to and from the latest system or guru with the hottest advertised hand. Such folly equates to selecting a mutual fund or stock for long-term investment on the basis that it was last year's best performer.
Over time, and likely after parting with a good portion of their trading stake, participants eventually learn that one way or another; proper endeavor into the art of speculation is predicated on hard work-ethics, acceptable levels of routine losses, and discretionary adherence to adaptive-dynamic trading principles that have proven themselves both reliable and profitable over acceptable periods of time.
Strident Short-Term NTO Traders Resume capturing BIG PROFITS
The ongoing hi-jinks, mayhem, and housecleaning operations continue to rid
the market of its most fearful traders. Though many may have cut & run
scared - jumping ship at the first sign of rough waters, our swift response
in quickly adapting proprietary short-term methodology to the current market
environment has paid off smartly for NTO traders. Our adaptive-dynamic analysis
provides short-term NTO traders with the audacity, resolve, discipline, and
confidence - to stick it out, and come out on top when the going gets tough.
Short-Term Trading Environment: Week ending 29-Feb.
In a word ... MANIC
Below is a graphic summary of recent short-term trade-triggers identified via Elliott Wave Technology's Near Term Outlook . Note how our trade performance has quickly rebounded after enduring a bout of sudden losses in weeks prior. In fact, the lion's share of February has been fraught with similar challenge. Such adversity along with the resumption of handsome profits is further illustrated by February's closing profits relative to last week's sizable $8,000 bounty.
Elliott Wave Technology's short-term market analysis provides an adaptive roadmap to the dynamic price action landscape five days per week. The Near Term Outlook provides an excellent platform from which speculative short-term traders may better execute their strategies, mitigate risk, and maximize profits.
THE BROAD MARKET UPDATE
We are going to begin this broad market outlook with a long-run value perspective
of Japanese equities. The chart below has been extracted from Elliott Wave
Technology's Millennium Wave Quarterly archives. Our chart of the Nikkei
is well annotated, self explanatory, and contains a shaded backdrop of the
YEN vs. GOLD behind the nominal price series.
Should one have interest in acquiring access to our long-term technical analysis and/or utilizing our proprietary short-term market landscapes, we invite you to visit our web-site for more information.
For immediate access to our broad market coverage in all time-horizons, one may subscribe directly to the Near Term Outlook which includes our Global Millennium Wave Quarterly reports, and Interim Monthly Forecasts. In addition, the NTO also provides ongoing coverage of the short-term Dow, S&P, and NDX five-days-per-week, and near-term updates for the Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and the HUI two times per week.
Trade Better / Invest Smarter...
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Author: Joseph Russo
Joseph Russo
Chief Editor and Technical Analyst
Elliott Wave Technology
Since the dot.com bubble, 911, and the 2002 market crash, Elliott Wave Technology's mission remains the delivery of valuable solutions-based services that empower clients to execute successful trading and investment decisions in all market environments.
Joe Russo is an entrepreneurial publisher and market analyst providing digital online media solutions designed to assist traders and investors in prudently and profitably navigating their exposure to the financial markets.
Since the official launch of his Elliott Wave Technology website in 2005, he has established an outstanding record of accomplishment, including but not limited to, ...
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In 2005, he elicited a major long-term wealth producing nugget of guidance in suggesting strongly that members give serious consideration to apportioning 10%-20% of their net worth toward the physical acquisition of Gold (@ $400.) and Silver (@ $6.00).
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In 2006, the (MTA) Market Technicians Association featured his article "Scaling Perceptions amid the Global Equity Boom" in their industry newsletter, "Technically Speaking."
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On May 6 of 2007, five months prior to the market top in 2007, though still bullish at that time, he publicly warned long-term investors not to be fooled again, in "Bullish Like There's No Tomorrow."
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On March 10 of 2008, with another 48% of downside remaining to the bottom of the great bear market of 2008-2009, in "V-for Vendetta," using the Wilshire 5000 as proxy, he publicly laid out the case for the depth and amplitude of the unfolding bear market, which marked terminal to a rather nice long-run in equity values.
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Working extensively with EasyLanguage® programmer George Pruitt in 2010 and 2011, the author of "Building Winning Trading Systems with TradeStation," he assisted in the development of several proprietary trading systems.
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On February 11, 2011, he publicly made available his call for a key bottom in the long bond at 117 '3/32. Within a year and half from his call, the long bond rallied in excess of 30% to new all time highs in July of 2012.
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For the benefit of members and his general readership, he responded to widespread levels of economic and financial uncertainty in the development of Prudent Measures in 2012.
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He publicly warned of a major top in Apple on October 26, 2012 in the very early stages of a 40% decline from its all time high.
Copyright © 2006-2013 Joseph Russo
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