Safe Haven | Preservation of Capital |

Someone in another group asked me today if it was my view that half the world's population would disappear once the fossil fuels are gone.

That and more, I told him.

Here is the argument I presented in support of my view:

In a preview of his soon-to-be-released book Birth of Plenty: How the Modern World of Prosperity Was Launched, William J. Bernstein says "not long after 1820, prosperity began flowing in an ever-increasing torrent; with each successive generation, the life of the son became observably more comfortable, informed, and predictable than that of the father." [emphasis added] He goes on to attribute this to "property rights, scientific rationalism, capital markets, and improvements in transport and communication."

I could not disagree with his analysis more than I do.

In Longwaves Message 1497 I quoted a snippet from the December issue of the the ASPO Newsletter. That snippet included the following:

"from the time of Christ until around 1750, peasant farmers employing sustainable agricultural methods only just succeeded in supporting a population in the 300 to 500 million range. The entry of coal-based energy was accompanied by a rise in the population to about one billion by 1850 when the first oil wells were drilled. A six-fold increase in population followed rising in parallel with the growing oil production." [my emphases]

Although coal had been used for centuries, it was not until about 1820 that major changes came in the use of coal:

http://www.pitwork.net/terrymc%20mining.htm

<snip>

At Killingworth the Grand Allies asked George Stephenson to design a locomotive.

Stephenson's designs led to a number of engines on the Tyneside wagonways by the early 1820's, but the big breakthrough came with the public demonstration of the Stockton to Darlington railway in 1825.

The railway allowed further coal mining expansion north of the 90-fathom dyke.

North of Backworth the household High Main coal deteriorates and the Low Main coal suitable for steam production dominates.

The demand for steam coal in industry and transport was growing and formed he basis for future coal mining expansion.

<snip>

As I see it, it was the increased use of fossil fuels - first coal and then oil - that led to the increases Bernstein is attempting to explain. His "property rights, scientific rationalism, capital markets, and improvements in transport and communication" probably played a role, but to ignore what was happening with the fossil fuels at that time is to miss the most important factor as I see it.

Now look at what the population was before we started using the fossil fuels - only around half a billion.

Regards,

Bill