Someone in another group asked
me today if it was my view that half the world's population would disappear once the fossil fuels
are gone.
That and more, I told
him.
How did you factor in electrical from
nuclear, etc.?
Here is the argument I presented
in support of my view:
In a preview of his soon-to-be-released book
Birth of Plenty: How the Modern World of Prosperity
Was Launched, William
J. Bernstein says "not long
after 1820, prosperity began flowing in an ever-increasing torrent; with
each successive generation, the life of the son became observably more
comfortable, informed, and predictable than that of the
father." [emphasis added] He goes on to
attribute this to "property rights, scientific rationalism,
capital markets, and improvements in transport and
communication."
I could not disagree with his
analysis more than I do.
"from the time of Christ until around
1750, peasant farmers employing sustainable agricultural methods only just
succeeded in supporting a population in the 300 to 500 million range. The
entry of coal-based energy was accompanied by a rise in the population to
about one billion by 1850 when the first oil wells were drilled. A six-fold
increase in population followed rising in parallel with the growing oil
production." [my emphases]
Although coal had been used
for centuries, it was not until about 1820 that major changes came in the use
of coal:
http://www.pitwork.net/terrymc%20mining.htm
<snip>
At
Killingworth the Grand Allies asked George Stephenson to design a
locomotive.
Stephenson's designs led to a number of engines on the
Tyneside wagonways by the early 1820's, but the big breakthrough came with the
public demonstration of the Stockton to Darlington railway in 1825.
The
railway allowed further coal mining expansion north of the 90-fathom
dyke.
North of Backworth the household High Main coal deteriorates and
the Low Main coal suitable for steam production dominates.
The demand
for steam coal in industry and transport was growing and formed he basis for
future coal mining expansion.
<snip>
As I see it, it was
the increased use of fossil fuels - first coal and then oil - that led
to the increases Bernstein is attempting to explain. His "property
rights, scientific rationalism, capital markets, and improvements in transport
and communication" probably played a role, but to ignore what was happening
with the fossil fuels at that time is to miss the most important factor as I
see it.
Now look at what the population was before we
started using the fossil fuels - only around half a
billion.
Regards,
Bill
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