Safe Haven | Preservation of Capital
"Everything should be made as simple as
possible, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein
HOME ARCHIVES FORUMS SEARCH SITE MAP ABOUT US

<<- Previous Message Next Message ->>
<- Previous In Thread
From:
Received:01/28/2004 07:04 PM
Subject:Re: The Example of the South Sea Bubble

----- Original Message ----- From: Joseph Ehardt
But the London stock market of that time was almost literally nothing more than those few companies speculating in the South Sea trade. In 1720, there weren't thousands of stocks on the London Exchange representing other aspects of English commerce. Very limited supply coupled with excessive demand invariably will produce a bubble (also a characteristic of the internet bubble), and an inescapable collapse as reality sets in. Anyway, the contention that the South Sea Bubble collapse resulted in the "average" London stock exchange company losing 98% of its price completely mischaracterizes the underlying details.
============
This brings us back to my earlier point and post.   What happened to stocks
- all stocks - in the recent Japan event and in the US in the 1930s?  Did
any of the companies that remained profitable hold or increase in price?
We are told of what the averages did but that does not tell the entire
story or does it?
 
I can not find any specifics of how many stocks there were
being traded in London and what percentage of productivity
or companies that represented. 
 
As to the South Sea and stocks in London at the time - see:
 
    Initial equity for the South Sea Company had come from conversion of  short-term government debts into shares of the new company. In 1719 another part of government debt was converted into South Sea shares (the 1710 Lottery). In January 1720 the South Sea Company launched the ambitious plan to convert more than half of British government debt. British government debt in 1720 was approx. 50 million pounds: 18.3 million held by 3 large corporations (3.4 Bank of England, 3.2 East India Company, 11.7 South Sea Company). Privately held redeemable debt amounted to 16.5 mln. An additional 15 mln consisted of irredeemable annuities, long fixed-term annuities of 72-87 years and short annuities of 22 years remaining maturity. At the time, British long-term debt was issued in odd sums and difficult to trade, because debt was not divisible and some issues could only be paid if the original debtor (!!) was proven to be still alive. Furthermore, the government was running into difficulties with servicing its debt. A debt conversion program would allow a conversion of high interest, but difficult to trade debt, into low interest, readily marketable debt/shares of the South Sea Company. All parties could gain.
 
 
Not only did capital stay in England, but many Dutch investors bought South Sea stock, thus increasing the inflationary pressure.
 
In addition to the South Sea and Mississippi ventures, there was a project for improving the Greenland fishery, another for importing walnut trees from Virginia.
 
"Bubble Act" was passed on June 11, 1720 requiring all joint-stock companies to have a royal charter.
 
A gargantuan Mississippi Bubble had expanded in France.
Cupidity was not unknown in Holland. From September 1719 through August 1720, 190 English speculative ventures had their initial public offerings. Some were honest, many not.
 
On January 1, 1720, the price of a share of South Sea stock stood at £128. On June 24 it hit £1,050. In September came the crash. By December the stock had returned to £128. Thousands declared themselves ruined. Banks could not collect loans on inflated stock and failed. Specie was in short supply. Work stopped on half-built homes. Investigations and revenge ensued, and a long struggle to restore stability.
 
 
In July 1720, with company shares at a vastly inflated, unrealistic and unsustainable level, confidence collapsed (as did the share price).

Investors lost considerable amounts and some even committed suicide. Despite the Bubble bursting, the company survived into the 1850s.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/timelines/britain/geo_s_seabubble.shtml

 
In the mean time, innumerable joint-stock companies started up everywhere.
 
Stranger still, investors bought rising stocks no matter how outrageous their design, anticipating lines of idiotic speculators to form behind them eager to gobble the stock at a higher price. Most of the semi-legitimate businesses claimed to go gold-hunting in the New World, or some such silk or tobacco trading. However, plenty of the illegitimate ones didn't.
 
By the end of September the stock had fallen to £150. The company failures now extended to banks and goldsmiths as they could not collect loans made on the stock, thousands of individuals were ruined (including many members of the aristocracy).
 
The South Sea Company continued until the 1850s.
 
The London Stock Exchange is one of the world's oldest stock exchanges and can trace its history back more than 300 years. Starting life in the coffee houses of 17th century London, the Exchange quickly grew to become the Citys most important financial institution.

 

<<- Previous Message Next Message ->>
<- Previous In Thread

 

« Opinions expressed at SafeHaven Forums are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of SafeHaven, its management, or the forum moderators. »

 
 
Top of Page
Read ourDISCLAIMER
HOME | ARCHIVES | FORUMS | SEARCH | SITE MAP
ABOUT US | LINKS | CONTACT US
Copyright © 2000-2009 - SAFEHAVEN.com
Server Admin by DIGITAL ADMIN
SafeHaven Web Site FEEDS
Get RSS Feeds