| From: | |
| Received: | 01/28/2004 07:04 PM |
| Subject: | Re: The Example of the South Sea Bubble |
But the London stock market of that
time was almost literally nothing more than those few companies speculating in
the South Sea trade. In 1720, there weren't thousands of stocks on the London
Exchange representing other aspects of English commerce. Very limited supply
coupled with excessive demand invariably will produce a bubble (also a
characteristic of the internet bubble), and an inescapable collapse as reality
sets in. Anyway, the contention that the South Sea Bubble collapse resulted
in the "average" London stock exchange company losing 98% of its price
completely mischaracterizes the underlying details.
============
This brings us back to my
earlier point and post. What happened to stocks
- all stocks - in the recent
Japan event and in the US in the 1930s? Did
any of the companies that
remained profitable hold or increase in price?
We are told of what the
averages did but that does not tell the entire
story or does it?
I can not find any specifics
of how many stocks there were
being traded in London
and what percentage of productivity
or companies that
represented.
As to the South Sea and
stocks in London at the time - see:
Initial equity for the South Sea Company had come from
conversion of short-term government debts into shares of the new company.
In 1719 another part of government debt was converted into South Sea shares (the
1710 Lottery). In January 1720 the South Sea Company launched the ambitious plan
to convert more than half of British government debt. British government debt in
1720 was approx. 50 million pounds: 18.3 million held by 3 large corporations
(3.4 Bank of England, 3.2 East India Company, 11.7 South Sea Company). Privately
held redeemable debt amounted to 16.5 mln. An additional 15 mln consisted of
irredeemable annuities, long fixed-term annuities of 72-87 years and short
annuities of 22 years remaining maturity. At the time, British long-term debt
was issued in odd sums and difficult to trade, because debt was not divisible
and some issues could only be paid if the original debtor (!!) was proven to be
still alive. Furthermore, the government was running into difficulties with
servicing its debt. A debt conversion program would allow a conversion of high
interest, but difficult to trade debt, into low interest, readily marketable
debt/shares of the South Sea Company. All parties could gain.
Not only did capital stay in England, but many Dutch investors bought
South Sea stock, thus increasing the inflationary pressure.
In addition to the South Sea and Mississippi ventures, there was a
project for improving the Greenland fishery, another for importing walnut trees
from Virginia.
"Bubble Act" was passed on June 11, 1720 requiring all joint-stock
companies to have a royal charter.
A gargantuan Mississippi Bubble had expanded in France. Cupidity
was not unknown in Holland. From September 1719 through August 1720, 190 English
speculative ventures had their initial public offerings. Some were honest, many
not.
On January 1, 1720, the price of a share of
South Sea stock stood at £128. On June 24 it hit £1,050. In September came the
crash. By December the stock had returned to £128. Thousands declared themselves
ruined. Banks could not collect loans on inflated stock and failed. Specie was
in short supply. Work stopped on half-built homes. Investigations and revenge
ensued, and a long struggle to restore stability.
In July 1720, with company shares at a vastly inflated, unrealistic and
unsustainable level, confidence collapsed (as did the share price).
Investors lost considerable amounts and some even committed suicide.
Despite the Bubble bursting, the company survived into the
1850s.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/timelines/britain/geo_s_seabubble.shtml
In the mean time, innumerable joint-stock companies started up
everywhere.
Stranger still, investors bought rising stocks no matter how
outrageous their design, anticipating lines of idiotic speculators to
form behind them eager to gobble the stock at a higher price. Most of the
semi-legitimate businesses claimed to go gold-hunting in the New World, or some
such silk or tobacco trading. However, plenty of the illegitimate ones
didn't.
By the end of September the stock had fallen to £150. The company
failures now extended to banks and goldsmiths as they could not collect loans
made on the stock, thousands of individuals were ruined (including many members
of the aristocracy).
The South Sea Company continued until the 1850s.
The London Stock Exchange is one of the world's oldest stock exchanges
and can trace its history back more than 300 years. Starting life in the coffee
houses of 17th century London, the Exchange quickly grew to become the Citys
most important financial institution.
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