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Bud,
I will try to post somewhere else..
Basically Dr Marchetti showed over the
past 300 years were basic invention and innovation have appeared in cycles and
frequency.. with contraction, with shakeouts and busts before and new "energy
paradigm takes over" the works were published back in 1981, clearly
demonstrating as along with Schumpeter theory of innovations and
crisis..
What the chart shows, and predicted that
solar should be coming onto it's around 2000, (this was a chart from
1981) brings down the cost competing with the current energy paradigm..
before oil, then coal, then wood and whale oil.. so forth and so
on.
The addition of First solar to the
S&P this past month, (which is the first altenrative energy stock to join
the big boys) is that costs are hear to compete.
Solar, hydrogen, algae, CSP, wind, tide,
geothermal, geoexchange, all these systems work, as they get
cheaper. Society will make the change as they always have because of the price
signal. The only breakthrough which should come about is battery
technology, once that occurs.. well, you better hope that your country revenues
come from more than oil and gas.
We are going to hear about that
breakthrough within a year or two.
Joseph
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