| From: | "Joseph Barbuto" |
| Received: | 10/20/2009 12:30 PM |
| Subject: | Re: Kondratiev wave and innovation |
Craig, I sometimes think we look at
things the same way..
Thanks for the charts and links I
happen to come across her book over the past summer.. Her view today..
Joseph
"Taking history as a guide, we are
now going through times equivalent to those of the New Deal and Bretton Woods.
This is the moment when the medium-term future is being define done way or
another within the wide range of the viable with this paradigm. To obtain the
maximum benefit from the enormous potential now available it is necessary
for the state to actively intervene in order to shape the space for market
action, tilting the field in the favour of social and environmental
goals and facilitating innovation and widespread investment across the
planet"
Technological Revolutions and Financial
Capital: the Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages
Tomorrow's Capitalism: Growth after
the financial crisis
Perezs path-breaking book Technological Revolutions and Financial
Capital: the Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages (2002) builds on the
tradition of Schumpeter. Perez describes the ways in which successive surges of
new technologies have transformed not only the economy but also its social
institutions, and the crucial role of financial capital in those surges. Each
surge has historically followed a pattern of technology emergence and explosive
growth, leading to a period of financial frenzy, crisis and then a more steady
period of deployment. The Wall Street Crash, Great Depression and post-war
Golden Age can all be seen as part of the great surge associated with the age of
oil, automobiles and mass production.
also a listen...
http://www.ippr.org/feeds/files/perez.mp3
http://cje.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/reprint/33/4/779?gca=33/4/779&sendit=Get+All+Checked+Abstract(s)
This paper argues that the two boom and bust episodes of the
turn of the centurythe internet mania and crash of the 1990s
and the easy liquidity boom and bust of the 2000sare two distinct
components of a single structural phenomenon. They are essentially
the equivalent of 1929 developed in two stages, one centred on
technological innovation, the other on financial innovation. Hence,
the frequent references to that crash, to the 1930s and to Bretton
Woods, are not simple journalistic metaphors for interpreting the
credit crunch and its solution, but rather the intuitive
recognition of a fundamental similarity between those events and the
current ones. The paper holds that such major boom and bust episodes
are endogenous to the way in which the market economy evolves and
assimilates successive technological revolutions. It will discuss why
it occurred in two bubbles on this occasion; it examines the
differences and continuities between the two episodes and presents an
interpretation of their nature and
consequences
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