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From:"Joseph Barbuto"
Received:10/20/2009 12:30 PM
Subject:Re: Kondratiev wave and innovation

Craig, I sometimes think we look at things the same way..
 
Thanks for the charts and links  I happen to come across her book over the past summer..  Her view today..
 
Joseph

"Taking history as a guide, we are now going through times equivalent to those of the New Deal and Bretton Woods. This is the moment when the medium-term future is being define done way or another within the wide range of the viable with this paradigm. To obtain the maximum benefit  from the enormous potential now available it is necessary for the state to actively intervene in order to shape the space for market action, tilting the field in the favour of social and environmental goals and facilitating innovation and widespread investment across the planet"

Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: the Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages 
 
Tomorrow's Capitalism: Growth after the financial crisis
 

Perez’s path-breaking book Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: the Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages (2002) builds on the tradition of Schumpeter. Perez describes the ways in which successive surges of new technologies have transformed not only the economy but also its social institutions, and the crucial role of financial capital in those surges. Each surge has historically followed a pattern of technology emergence and explosive growth, leading to a period of financial frenzy, crisis and then a more steady period of deployment. The Wall Street Crash, Great Depression and post-war Golden Age can all be seen as part of the great surge associated with the age of oil, automobiles and mass production.

also a listen...

http://www.ippr.org/feeds/files/perez.mp3

http://cje.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/reprint/33/4/779?gca=33/4/779&sendit=Get+All+Checked+Abstract(s)

This paper argues that the two boom and bust episodes of the turn of the century—the internet mania and crash of the 1990s and the easy liquidity boom and bust of the 2000s—are two distinct components of a single structural phenomenon. They are essentially the equivalent of 1929 developed in two stages, one centred on technological innovation, the other on financial innovation. Hence, the frequent references to that crash, to the 1930s and to Bretton Woods, are not simple journalistic metaphors for interpreting the ‘credit crunch’ and its solution, but rather the intuitive recognition of a fundamental similarity between those events and the current ones. The paper holds that such major boom and bust episodes are endogenous to the way in which the market economy evolves and assimilates successive technological revolutions. It will discuss why it occurred in two bubbles on this occasion; it examines the differences and continuities between the two episodes and presents an interpretation of their nature and consequences

 

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