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May 23, 2003
Didier Sornette

This figure shows 8 years of the evolution of the Japanese Nikkei index and 7 years of the USA S&P500 index, compared to each other after a translation of 11 years has been performed. The years are written on the horizontal axis (and marked by a tick on the axis) where January 1 of that year occurs. This figure illustrates an analogy noted by several observers that our work has made quantitative. The oscillations with decreasing frequency which decorate an overall decrease of the stock markets are observed only in very special stock markets regimes, that we have terms log-periodic "anti-bubbles''. By analyzing the mathematical structure of these oscillations, we quantify them into one (or several) mathematical formula(s) that can then be extrapolated to provide the prediction shown in the two following figures.

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