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May 23, 2003
Didier Sornette

Fig. 2 shows the new predictions of the future of the US S&P 500 index using all the data from Aug.9,2000 to May.16,2003, illustrated by (continuous and dashed) black lines. Again, the continuous line is the fit and its extrapolation using the "super-exponential power-law log-periodic function" discussed in the figure caption of figure 1, while the dashed line is the fit and its extrapolation by including in the function a second (log-periodic) harmonic. We also present the two previous fits (red lines) performed on Aug.24,2002 (shown in Fig. 1) for comparison, so as to provide an estimation of the sensitivity of the prediction and of its robustness as the price evolves. The blue dots show the daily price evolution from Aug.9,2000 to May.16,2003. The large (respectively small) ticks in the abscissa correspond to January 1st (respectively to the first day of each quarter) of each year.

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