Fig. 6 extends figure 3 by performing a sensitivity analysis on
the 'zero-phase' Weierstrass-type function, in order to assess
the reliability and range of uncertainty of the prediction. Using
the fit shown in black solid lines in figure 3, we have generated
10 realizations of an artificial S&P500 by adding A GARCH noise
to the black solid line. GARCH means "generalized auto-regressive
conditional heteroskedasticity". It is a process often taken as
a benchmark in the financial industry and describes the fact that
volatility is persistent. The innovations of the used GARCH noise
have been drawn from a Student distribution with 3 degrees of freedom
with a variance equal to that of the residuals of the fit of the
real data by the black continuous curve, to ensure the agreement
between these synthetic time series and the known properties of
the empirical distribution of returns. Using the GARCH noise improves
on our previous synthetic tests of last month by using a more realistic
correlated noise process. We have then fitted each of these 10
synthetic noisy clones of the S&P500 (shown as the blue dots) by
our 'zero-phase' Weierstrass-type function. This yields the narrow
bundle of 10 curves shown here in magenta. This bundle of predictions
is very coherent and suggests a good robustness of the prediction.
The typical width of the blue dots give a sense of the variability
that can be expected around this most probable scenario. The real
S&P500 price trajectory is shown as the red wiggly line.
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