Fig. 1 shows the predictions of the future of the US S&P 500 index performed on Aug. 24, 2002. The continuous line is the fit and its extrapolation, using our theory capturing investor herding and crowd behavior. The theory takes into account the competition between positive feedback (self-fulfilling sentiment), negative feedbacks (contrariant behavior and fundamental/value analysis) and inertia (everything takes time to adjust). Technically, we use what we call a "super-exponential power-law log-periodic function" derived from a first order Landau expansion of the logarithm of the price. The dashed line is the fit and its extrapolation by including in the function a second log-periodic harmonic. The two fits are performed using the index data from Aug. 9, 2000 to Aug. 24 2002 that are marked as black dots. The blue dots show the daily price evolution from Aug. 25, 2002 to Aug. 15, 2003. The large (respectively small) ticks in the abscissa correspond to January 1st (respectively to the first day of each quarter) of each year. |