It looks like someone linked you here to our printer friendly page. Please make sure you go Back to Safehaven.com for more great articles just like this one!

SPY Closed 2 SD above 20-Day MA

By: Frank Hogelucht | Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Cartoon
www.CartoonStock.com

Despite the fact that most recently the market regularly defied all probabilities and odds for closing lower, on close of Monday, February 7 2011, another negative setup had been triggered calling for a lower close (SPY: below 131.97) at the end of the current week and /or right at the start of the next week (Monday, February 14).

On Monday's session, and utilizing Bollinger Bands %B with a 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 2 standard deviations (for a detailed explanation of the Bollinger Bands %B concept see Stockcharts.com), the SPY closed above the 1.00 threshold (%B equals 1 when price is at the upper band, > 1 therefore means more than 2 standard deviations above the 20-day mean), which had - even during the most recent run-up in the markets - been a reliable indication that buying power will probably be exhausted over the short-term, andalling for some lower prices ahead.

Table I below shows the SPY's performance over the course of the then following five sessions in the event the SPY closed at least 2 standard deviations above its 20-day SMA in the recent past (since 2009).

The market's chances for a higher close one to five sessions later were always (for every single session) at or around 35% (almost 1 : 2), significantly lower than the SPY's at-any-time chances for a higher close one to four sessions later (52.71% | 53.89% | 55.08% | 55.41% | 60.76%), and fully compliant to the negative outlook when the S&P 500 was up 2.5%+ month-to-date on the first session of the second week of a month (see SPY UP > 2.5% MtD on Day 1 of Week 2).

In addition, the SPY never looked back and did not post a single close above the trigger day's close (in this event the close on Monday, February 7) on six occurrences (but lapsed for the recent occurrence due to the fact that the SPY closed higher on Tuesday, February 8), but did not post a single close below the trigger day's close only once (05/05/2009). And the SPY closed higher 1.0%+ five sessions later only once, but lower -1.0%+ on six occurrences.


Conclusions:

Probabilities and odds are (party heavily) tilt in favor of some consolidation of recent gains over the course of the next couple of sessions, but don't overstay your welcome on the short side of the market (the market may position it selves again for a resumption of the uptrend).

Successful trading,

 


And a short reminder: If the information provided is helpful for your own trading business, any donation to my Be it! Children's Charitable Foundation is much appreciated (donations can be sent via PayPal, see widget on the right side of the blog).

 

Author: Frank Hogelucht

Frank Hogelucht
Trading The Odds

Frank Hogelucht

Individual investor, trading for a living since 2007, taking a statistical approach in combination with historical market data and addicted to developing market-neutral algorithmic trading strategies.

If you might want to be instantly notified about what's happening in the markets and at TRADING THE ODDS, I encourage you to subscribe to my RSS Feed or Email Feed, and (or) follow me on Twitter

Remarks: Due to their conceptual scope - and if not explicitely stated otherwise - , all models/setups/strategies do not account for slippage, fees and transaction costs, do not account for return on cash and/or interest on margin, do not use position sizing (e.g. Kelly, optimal f) - they're always 'all in' - , do not use leverage (e.g. leveraged ETFs) - but a marginable account is mandatory - , do not utilize any kind of abnormal market filter (e.g. during market phases with extremely elevated volatility), do not use intraday buy/sell stops (end-of-day prices only), and models/setups/strategies are not 'adaptive' (do not adjust to the ongoing changes in market conditions like bull and bear markets).

Disclaimer

The information on this site is provided for statistical and informational purposes only. Nothing herein should be interpreted or regarded as personalized investment advice or to state or imply that past results are an indication of future performance. The author of this website is not a licensed financial advisor and will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on the content of this website(s). Under no circumstances does this information represent an advice or recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

I may or may not hold positions for myself, my family and/or clients in the securities mentioned here. Actions may have been taken before or after information is presented, and any opinions expressed in this site are subject to change without notice.

(Data courtesy of MetaStock, and for data import, testing, surveys and statistics I use MATLAB from MathWorks)

Copyright © 2010-2012 Frank Hogelucht