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SPX: Follow Up of the Short Term EWP

By: TheWaveTrading | Thursday, November 8, 2012

Sorry but today I have personal matters to take care so this is just a brief update.

The US presidential election euphoria vanished abruptly aborting the scenario of a larger bounce with an Ending Diagonal or a more time consuming sideways Triangle.

I modify the count of the corrective move from the September 14 high from a Double Zig Zag to a Triple Zig Zag. The end result is the same but with a TZZ. I can include two potential short-term scenarios from yesterday's hod: either an impulsive decline (blue count) or a Zig Zag (black count).

SPX Daily Chart
Larger Image

If this count is correct price will unfold either an impulsive sequence or a 3-wave down leg. One of these two options should establish the end of the correction.

With yesterday's sell off we finally have price inside the Target Box.

We have an eod print below the September 4 reaction low = 1396.56 and the 0.382 retracement = 1395.

The trend line in force since the October 2011 was tested but not breached, but I doubt it will hold the next down leg.

Yesterday's strong selling has pushed TRIN into oversold territory hence odds favor a rebound attempt for today. If this is the case, it should fail in the range 1411 - 1416.

Given the positive divergences of breadth indicators and since price is already inside the potential target range of a multi-week/month bottom we have to be extremely vigilant in order to detect the move that is expected to complete the EWP.

The McClellan Oscillator seems to be unfolding a contracting pattern that could be the springboard for a bullish thrust if the sequence of higher lows is not aborted.

NYSE McClellan Oscillator Chart

 

Author: TheWaveTrading

TheWaveTrading

Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him at thewavetrading@gmail.com

The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets and asset classes.

In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.

My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies and commodities markets.

My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines and investor sentiment.

My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).

The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.

Therefore the main purpose of TWT will be to establish investment strategies regardless if the market is in an up trend or in a down trend, leveraging the chosen scenario while managing the risk by establishing protective stop losses.

Hence I will always define the risk, I will try to let winners run the wave and I will cut the losses if my strategy is wrong.

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