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Investing Wisely - Exxon: Forecasts / Confirmations = Profitable Results!

By: Steve Bauer | Tuesday, November 13, 2012

It is Really Quite Simple

It begins with Accurate Forecasting and Analytic Procedures, then it requires Well Honed Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion Conformations, and it ends with Profitable Results. (F / C = PR)


Professors, F / C = PR - - - Opinion of: Exxon (XON):

Investing Wisely - Exxon: Forecasts / Confirmations = Results!

My most recent articles have been posted here in SafeHaven.com are: AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T, XOM. (To view my 20-Year Charts of the above symbols - Click on the Symbol).

You might want to re-read my articles for the Accuracy of my Forecasts of all of these Companies. The above (F / C = PR) is as Accurate and Profitable - formula as anything you will find in the financial blogs you may be reading.

My near-term Forecast is that Exxon is has been coming down exactly as long as I have put out an initial bearish warnings to my clients and wrote a definitive article in another financial blog and here in SafeHaven.com. The foreseeable appreciation picture for Exxon is not nearly as bright as most financial analysts are publishing. Longer term valuation forecasts are however amongst the strongest for the Major - Oil & Gas Industry Group.

When the General Market turns Bearish and is in trouble (and it IS in trouble) Companies like XOM will follow suit - head south. (see the 20-Year Chart). That is a simple axiom of "Investing Wisely." This fact is particularly true when a Company has Poor Valuations at the time the General Market first starts showing weakness. My below charts tell that story very clearly. This being true, Exxon will definitely continue to participate in this pull back. It is only marginally off its highs but with my expected Bounce / Mini-Rally it will take notable hurt in the following months ahead.

My Valuations and Forecasts for XOM, this past year has been completely on target for both Exxon and other Major - Oil & Gas Companies and that is their not being all that profitable to own. Most of the companies I feature pay a dividend. (Please read my recent article for Seniors regarding doubling your monthly income). Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. Many Dow Companies and others are hurting a hurt that is just plain (unacceptable asset management) if you have been advised to HOLD.

My Fundamental Valuation for XOM is a minus 10% - 15+% in the coming months.

Within my professional asset management for my Clients, I also offer (more timely and specific) Alerts for Companies that are like XOM. Yes, a Pull-Back is my Short-Term (3 months to 6 months) Forecast, but the good news is that - - one day again XOM will be a very profitable company to own. Unfortunately, that day is not projectable and therefore Prudence is the best Investment Strategy for XOM at this time. Let me know if you are interested in my Guidance and Direction of your Portfolio.

Notes: A snapshot of - - How I Get My Accuracy, Results and Profits ...

It all starts with what I call Comparative Analytics. There are several thousand U.S. Companies in the New York and Nasdaq markets. Each Company is a component of a Sector as well as an Industry Group. There are about 12 - 15 Sectors and well over 200 Industry Groups.

I spend a lot of my time breaking all of these components down to a manageable size. My analytic work, for doing this, uses my unique valuation and time tested technical indicator methodology. This process offers clear guidance as to both the direction of the Marketplace as well as for the near to short-term direction of each sector, industry group and company.

All this work is continuously in place to review any Company or ETF. It is also rather easy to identify the Companies and ETFs that have the highest probability of meaningfully contributing to (ascending) after a clear Bullish Inflection point for the next ensuing rally. This works the same within a Bearish Inflection Point. Again, it is easy to identify the Companies and ETFs (Inverse) that have the highest probability of (descending) in a Bearish environment.

That is how Investing Wisely works for me as well as for my clients! In over 50 years I have never found that investors or financial analysts / asset managers understand and apply this basic and on-going process of consistently making money in the stock market.

A Forecast is just that, an opinion based on the fundamental - valuation, technical charts and consensus opinion on data as well as the information and data that is available at the time of publishing this article. The single factor that can upset a very good forecast is the News. That is why it is important to stay with the facts and real data and not be influenced by outside and temporal flows of media mis-guided information. You may have already noted that each week I feature a new and well-known company for your consideration. I am sorry that cannot possible keep a weekly update for you.

If you would like my most current thoughts on this or another company, please contact me by Email. (Serious investors only - Please!)


Confirmations:

I Love Confirmations

"Confirmations" are simply a review of a dozen or so criteria of my fundamental valuations, technical analytics and consensus opinions - from my previous Company & ETF Forecasts -- prior to making investment recommendations to my Clients. They only ("click in" - a day or two ahead of my recommendation to take a specific position - either - bullish or bearish positions.

"I Love Confirmations" because they are my reward for long hours of hard work / analytics. They then provide me with professional affirmation that I am doing the job very well - that I am being paid to do. That's Sweet...

Profitable Results: Profitable results, like most things in life, come after doing a superior job. A superior job comes only from much experience, dedication and hard work.

The Professors - Report Card on: Exxon (XOM)

Company
/ Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Report Card -
Grade & Direction:

(0 - 100 / A - F) --
Ascending - Flat - Descending.
Exxon (XOM) Good - - Poor - - Good - - 76 / C - - Descending

My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every companies "Grade" can from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.

The twenty-year chart is offered to give you a perspective. "Perspective" is yet another tool for making money that is seldom employed.

My article here in SafeHaven.com on "My Rotation Model" supports the above notes. (click here).

Two-Year Chart of Exxon and S&P - SPY ETF

2-Year Chart of Exxon versus S&P500

You can clearly see that XOM and SPY are tracking each other very well! That should be a "Warning." Do not buy or short Exxon, without talking with a seasoned financial analyst or perhaps visiting with me via Email.

Twenty-Year Chart of Exxon and S&P - SPY ETF

20-Year Chart: Exxon with a Compare of the S&P (SPY)
Larger Image

I suggest that you to take a long look at this 20-year chart. Having a longer-term perspective of a possible future investment will always give you a more consistent bottom line. Comparing Exxon with the SPDR, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) tells a very compelling and profitable story.


I am the guy who wrote the 38 week course on Investment Basics. See the link on the right column (side-bar) of SafeHaven.com - Home Page.


General Market - - Where are We and Where are we Going?

Bearish Warning

My Fundamentals are over-valued. My Technicals are over-bought. My consensus opinions are much too bullish. Insiders are selling, and Interest Rates and Dividends are on the rise.

The economies of the world's economic powers are in much more peril than is being reported by the media.

That means there is going to continue to be a great deal of hurt for the foreseeable future.

Therefore, I am bearish on the general market, the economy, and believe holding long positions in mutual funds and other Financial Advisors for the foreseeable future is not WISE!

The U.S. is already into an (un-announced) recession! You just have not been told by your government, as usual!

I will keep you posted ...


Please visit my personal blog, if you have not followed it lately. There is a special announcement that hopefully will make sense to you that I would like to be paid for my experience, accuracy and hard work.

My Blog: http://twitter.com/InvestRotation


My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com
Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."
I would appreciate your Telling a Friend or Two about my postings here in SafeHaven.com. It is by far the best financial blog on the web.


Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

 

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.