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Big Moves Coming in December, January and February

By: Toby Connor | Monday, November 26, 2012

Well how was that for the start of a new intermediate cycle? While many analysts were calling for continued losses or even a market crash I repeatedly warned traders that an intermediate degree bottom was coming and that markets routinely rally violently out of those bottoms, often generating 5-8% gains in the first 12 to 15 days. This particular intermediate bottom has already gained 5% in just the first five days.

As I've been saying all along, I think the market will easily make new highs in the next two or three months, possibly even significant new highs, or a test of the 2007 top as QE3 starts to work its magic.

That being said, stocks and gold are now due for a short-term breather. Why is that you ask, if all markets have just formed major intermediate cycle lows? The reason has to do with the daily dollar cycle. Friday marked the 24th day in the current daily cycle. That cycle generally runs about 18-28 days trough to trough. At 24 days the cycle is well into the timing band for a bottom and bounce.

US Dollar Index Futures Cash, Composite

That bounce should force stocks into a short-term correction, or sideways consolidation, and gold into its next daily cycle low.

$SPX S&P 500 Large Cap Index INDX
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However, don't be fooled by any short-term corrective move as stocks and gold have all clearly formed major intermediate bottoms. There are always corrective moves along the way, nothing goes straight up, but intermediate cycles don't usually form a final top until sometime around week 12-15. As last week was only week 1 of a new intermediate cycle, we probably don't need to look for a final top until sometime in February, or early March.

Coincidentally, that is when the dollar is due to form its yearly cycle low. A yearly cycle bottom is the most severe cyclical decline other than a three year cycle low (the next one of those isn't due until mid-2014). I think we can safely assume that QE3 is going to complete the head and shoulders topping pattern for this particular three year cycle, and just as I said months ago the dollar topped back in the summer when the CRB index formed its final three year cycle low.

US Dollar Index Futures Cash, Composite

The dollar should now head generally lower over the next year and a half with brief bear market rallies similar to what we just experienced. This will drive an inflationary phase that should drive all asset prices higher into mid-2013, and commodities into a super spike in mid-2014 (this is when I expect gold to reach its next C-wave top at roughly $4000).

By mid-2013 inflation will start to take its toll on the economy, and stocks will stagnate and begin an extended topping process as inflation continues to surge, similar to what happened in 2007/08.

$SPX S&P 500 Large Cap Index INDX
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I think we will experience the same phenomenon this time as QE3 eventually generates the same unexpected consequences and spikes commodity inflation.

$SPX S&P 500 Large Cap Index INDX
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Traders need to be prepared next week for some kind of corrective move. Understand this is not the beginning of another leg down, but a second chance to get positioned for what should be a very profitable intermediate degree rally over the next 2-3 months.

 


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Author: Toby Connor

Toby Connor
Gold Scents

Gold Scents is a financial blog focused on the analysis of the stock market and the secular gold bull market. Subscriptions to the premium service include a daily and weekend market update emailed to subscribers. If you would like to be added to the email list that receives notice of new posts to Gold Scents, or have questions, email Toby.

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