It looks like someone linked you here to our printer friendly page. Please make sure you go Back to Safehaven.com for more great articles just like this one!

Investing Wisely - Cisco: Forecasts / Confirmations = Profitable Results!

By: Steve Bauer | Thursday, December 6, 2012

It is Really Quite Simple

It begins with Accurate Forecasting and Analytic Procedures, then it requires Well Honed Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion Confirmations, and it ends with Profitable Results. (F / C = PR). This simple 1, 2, 3 formula has produced consistent annual profits for both me and my Clients for many, many years.


Professor's F / C = PR --- > for My High Profile / Bellwether Companies...

Forecasts

My most recent articles have been posted here in SafeHaven.com are: AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T, XOM. (To view my 20-Year Charts for the above Company Symbols - Click on the Symbol - and - To view my Articles for the above Companies - go to my Archive here in SafeHaven.com).

You might want to re-read my Archive of Articles to "Confirm" for yourself the Accuracy of my Forecasts for all of these Companies.

The above (F / C = PR) is as Accurate and Profitable -- formula / methodology as anything you will find in the Financial Media and Blogs you may be reading. It is a very Mature, Conservative and Low Risk process of "Investing Wisely." That is the opinion of many of many of my Followers and all of my Clients. I hope you agree and will want to plug into my work / analytics for a closer look. All it takes is an Email.


Professor's Quarterly Forecast for Cisco

on The Button

My past two Quarterly - Articles for (CSCO) can be found in my Archive, just click on Authors and you will be taken to the Home Page and - Steve Bauer. Remember, I rotate these Articles over a three-month period.

They (the articles) Accuracy Wise were and are - Right on the Button.

Accuracy in "The Analytic Process" can be achieved - when you do your homework well. As an Educator / Professor of Finance and Economics, I was able to reinforce my University Days that -- Hard Work can lead you to the "A's" and you do not have to settle for something less. As a Professional Asset Manager (for over 50 years), I can assure you that my "doing my analytics (homework) well" remains a profitable, and in this realm it pays off in "$'s." May I suggest - You just might want to improve your grade point average to "A's" and your annual profitability to "$'s" - just a bit?

You will also find in my Archive that I write - random - Special Updates on both my Company and ETF Articles. My latest happened to be on Apple. Again, I believe you will find it too is very, very "Accurate." http://www.safehaven.com/article/27649/apple-inc-special-update


My Near/Short-term (one month to three months) Forecast for Cisco

The Company has been Cycling between $13. and $21. going Sideways to Bearish over the past five-plus years. In 2007 it was at $33. and in 2010 it was at $27. That is pathetic performance! The July Rally (which I called) remains in tack. I have documented my identification of that rally within my Performance Article. I have put out an initial Bearish Warnings (October) to my Clients and wrote a definitive Bearish article in another financial blog and here in SafeHaven.com.

I repeat, the foreseeable appreciation picture for Cisco is not nearly as bright as most financial analysts and bloggers are publishing. Longer-term (six months to one year or more) my Fundamental - Valuation Analytics consistent and level in its Industry Group and the Marketplace. That does Not offer much hope for appreciation especially in this Negative Market environment.

When the General Market turns Bearish and is in trouble (and it IS in trouble) Companies like (CSCO) will follow suit - and also head south. If you need to confirm this remark please (see the 20-Year Chart) for (CSCO) - or - any other Company listed above - or - otherwise. That is a simple axiom of "Investing Wisely." This fact is particularly true when a Company has Less than Excellent Fundamental - Valuations at the time the General Market first starts showing weakness (and it DEFINITELY showing weakness).

My below charts also tell that story very clearly. This being a fact, Cisco will definitely continue to participate in this General Market pull back for a time. It is currently off its highs only slightly and much more (except for the current Bounce / Mini-Rally). My Forecast is that there will be notable hurt once again in the following weeks and perhaps months ahead.

My Fundamental - Valuations and Technical Analysis have produced Accurate Forecasts for (CSCO), many years. My Methodology has been completely on target (On the Button) for both Cisco and other Technology Companies / Industry Groups.

Most of the Companies I feature above pay a dividend. (Please read my recent article for Seniors regarding doubling your monthly income).

Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. Many Dow Companies, High Profile Companies and MANY others are have and are currently beginning to - hurt a meaningful hurt.

I suggest that - if you have been advised by anyone to HOLD as Company such as Cisco - that those folks are offering -- just plain (unacceptable Asset Management). Most mutual funds have this "Hold Companies like Cisco) perspective each and every day over the decades - Hum...

My Fundamental - Valuation for (CSCO) remains a minus 10% - 15% or more for the foreseeable future. The previous leg down took this "Company" down over 50%. I hope some of my words are getting your attention.

Note: You might want to do some arithmetic on how to maintain a profitable portfolio. What percent does it take to recover from a 50% loss? Answer: 100%. A 100% gain to recover from a 50% is almost in the realm of fantasy in today's Marketplace!

Accurate Forecasting is both Essential and Mandatory in this modern Stock Market. The "Old Days" are Gone For Ever! So is a "Long Forgotten" word: Ethics!


Within my professional asset management (direction and guidance) for my Clients, I offer (more timely and specific) Alerts, Warnings and Recommendations for Companies that are Not like (CSCO). This should be obvious if you are consistently reading my Articles.


A Pull-Back is my Short-Term (3 months to 6 months) Forecast, but the good news is that -- one day again Cisco will be a very profitable Company to own. Unfortunately, that day is not project-able and therefore Prudence is the best Investment Strategy for (CSCO) at this time.

Let me know if you are interested in my Guidance and Direction of your Portfolio.


How I Do my Forecasting and Get My Accuracy, Results and Consistent Profits...

For further detail and insight into my work / analytics please click on the following URL: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27820/special-notes-supporting-my-articles


Professor's - Report Card on: Cisco (CSCO)

Company
/ Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Report Card -
Grade & Direction:

(0 - 100 / A - F) --
Ascending - Flat - Descending.
Cisco (CSCO) Good - Poor -- Good -- Good -- 71 / C - and Descending

Notes: My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every companies "Grade" can from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.

Why on Earth anyone would invest their money in other than an "A" Rated and Excellent Report Card - Company or ETF? This is beyond my capacity to understand!

My twenty-year chart of Cisco is offered to give you a perspective. "Perspective" is yet another tool for making money that is seldom employed by Advisors and Investors alike.

My article here in SafeHaven.com on "My Rotation Model" supports the above Notes.


Two-Year (Comparative Percent) Chart of Cisco (CSCO) and S&P 500 - (SPY) - ETF

2-Year Cisco versus SPY

You can clearly see in the above Chart that (CSCO) and (SPY) are tracking each other rather well! That should be a "Warning." Please - Do not Buy or Short Cisco, without talking with a seasoned financial analyst or perhaps visiting with me via Email.

Twenty-Year Chart of Cisco (CSCO) and S&P 500 - (SPY) - ETF

20-Year Chart: Cisco versus S&P (SPY)
Larger Image

I suggest that you to take a long look at this 20-year chart. Having a longer-term perspective of a possible future investment will always give you a more consistent bottom line. Comparing Cisco (CSCO) with the SPDR, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) -- should tell you a very compelling story of how I go about profiting in the stock market. It has much to do with "Perspective" and "Comparative Analytics." These two words make my job rather easy because there are always select Companies and ETFs that are "In-Favor." Unfortunately, Most Companies and ETFs are "Not In-Favor." Again, it's back to "My Rotation Model."


I am the guy who wrote the 38-week course on Investment Basics. See the link on the right column (side-bar) of SafeHaven.com - Home Page.


Professor's -- Weekly -- (Bullish Alert - or - Bearish Warning) --- For the General Market and the U.S. / Global Economies:

Bearish Warning

My Fundamentals are over-valued. My Technicals are over-bought. My Consensus Opinions are much too bullish. Insiders are selling, and Interest Rates and Dividends are on the rise.

The Economies of the World's Economic Powers are in much more peril than is being reported by the Media.

That means there is going to continue to be a great deal of hurt for the foreseeable future.

You are purposefully being lied to by Washington, (other World Capitals) -- Wall Street -- the Media - and - many other purportedly reliable sources! I have Learned - How-To - to Filter this misguiding information and data, and that took years.

Therefore, I remain Bearish on the General Market, all Sectors, most all Industry Groups and Companies / ETFs as well as the Economies of the World. I further believe Holding Long Positions in most Mutual Funds and other Financial Advisory Firms for the foreseeable future is not - "Investing Wisely."

The U.S. is already into an (un-announced) Recession! You just have not been told by your government, as usual! However, 9 European Countries have confirmed to their "People" that they are "In Recession." Certain Asian Countries will certainly follow.

I will keep you posted...


As for -- What YOU Should - Do Now? The answer to that Question is what I have been getting paid, for over 50-years of Direction and Guidance. The above is and will be Accurate advice but, I Strongly Suggest - if you are not "plugged in" to your (seasoned - 30 years or more of professionally managing assets) financial advisor on a very personal (One on One & 24/7) basis I can assure you that - YOU will NEVER have the Results / Profits that you ESPECT - or - DESERVE !

Attempting to Compete with a professional in sports, academics, theology or the stock market is Not Recommended! In fact I believe it is - Damned Foolish! The best advice you can ever get / learn is to: Pay for Advice in those areas of life that you don't get "As" in. The majority will always try to Compete but - historically - the "majority" are and never will be - Profitable or Winners.


Please visit my personal blog, if you have not followed it lately. There is a special announcement that hopefully will make sense to you that I would like to be paid for my experience, accuracy and hard work.

My Blog: http://twitter.com/InvestRotation


My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com
Thanks for permitting me to share my -- pragmatic and candid -- "stuff."
I would appreciate your Telling a Friend or Two about my postings here in SafeHaven.com. SafeHaven.com is by far the finest financial blog on the web. I am proud to be a contributor.


Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

 

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.