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Saturday (morning) Weekly Market Wrap for December 8, 2012
Good Morning: It's Saturday again...
Accuracy in Forecasting -- Is What it is All About:
This all dates back to over 50 years of my work / analytics of Raw Data Interpretation and Inflection Points.
I have written a large number of articles on my Methodology which is based on the early and clear Forecasting and Identification of all Inflection Points. I know of no other source of information and data that provides LEADING guidance with this consistent accuracy.
All my articles are based on "My Methodology" - You might consider spending some time reviewing the following URL: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27312/my-methodology
The Market for the Past Week
It was a good week again if you are Bullish. I remain Bearish and I / We (Clients) are definitely "Bearish." The Bounce / Mini-Rally I have Forecast is clearly in place. (Please see my Inflection Point Count on StockCharts Public List - see below for the URLs). Remember, there is only one thing that can DELAY an Accurate Forecast -- That is - NEWS.
I hope you are beginning to believe that I am producing Very Accurate Forecasts. Accurate Forecasts lead to Results and Results are Profiting in the Stock Market. Bullish or Bearish, I hope you like what I am sharing.
Seemingly, as always, we have had plenty of that "NEWS" for several weeks and this past Week was and will continue to be focused on the Fiscal Cliff. A Democracy promotes -- Gridlock - and - Pork Barrel Politics -- that is what the American Democracy is all about. The problem in the U.S. and Globally is that - these two characteristics have been carried far beyond any form of reason. Honesty and Ethics have been lost along the way and will never be recovered again.
So we ALSO have, (perhaps a better description is "BS" and that is a FACT! Billions will also be spent on (pork barrel politics) satisfying both Republicans and Democrats in order to -- Attempt to Do What is Right for the PEOPLE! Winston Churchill once said: "Given enough Attempts the U.S. always gets it Right." This "ATTEMPT" is going to be just one more Blundering Failure.
So, now - HYPE & BS - will be the focus and that (OFTEN DISTORTED) picture should last awhile. May be Forever?
Apple, Inc. was the stock highlight but the "light" was not very bright. It was off almost 9% for the week. It is following my Forecast - check it out.
The Nasdaq was therefore Down while the New York were up modestly.
Regarding the "Fiscal Cliff" now they are saying that failure to do something will cause a U.S. Recession. I just laugh at the stupidity of policy makers at releasing "News." I have said for weeks, "We Are In A Recession" and now the trickle of admission begins.
Consumer Sentiment fell badly - and the Public keep electing supposed leaders who just kick the can down the road. That is true for decades.
My Forecast - "Bounce / Mini-Rally" is doing it's thing.
Here is what I have said for weeks about the Recession: the U.S. is in an (unannounced) Recession, that and much more will be "announced" AFTER the Election. I believe you will find that -- nine European Countries are IN Formal / Announced Recession. The U.S. and some Asian Countries are also in peril.
More on that tomorrow - exclusively in my Sunday (morning) "Client Weekly ("Detailed") Forecast - Update."
The "Fiscal Cliff(s)" will also not soon go away...
This Article is Well Worth Your Reading: http://pragcap.com/3-bearish-signs-in-a-sea-of-negativity
For the week, the Dow and the Nasdaq were Up - just a TINY - BIT. Hum!
My Fundamental - Valuation Work / Forecast of -- Not such good Earnings was again endorsed and magnified this past week.
Europe and Asia are not doing any better.
Not a pretty picture for the foreseeable future...
My Inflection Point (I.P.) Count and Now - More
It closed the week at an anemic 54. So far in this "Bounce / Mini-Rally" it is likely telling us that my Forecast for a Pull-Back is coming sooner rather than later. Apple, Inc. has been telling this story for a few months now. Remember "News" can change that picture and often does! I continue to be impressed with the "Accuracy" and "Sensitivity" of My Proprietary Indicator. I am now adding a second Market Indicator. Check it out.
I have just written another fancy program that goes even further into the "guts and bones" of my I. P. Count Indicator. It caught the rally two days before it happened and this newest program gave over one week notice. http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666
I Do Not Believe in or use a Crystal Ball -- Weegie Board - Witching Stick! My "stuff" requires many hours of experience and hard work!
You might want to stay in touch with My Proprietary Indicator. Go to: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79023347983&a=270034212
This might just be the best Indicator I have ever seen! "Plug In" -- You might be impressed too?
I would appreciate your becoming a "Follower" and "Vote" to keep this Indicator Public. You will have to use this URL to participate.
I am requesting you to do this - so that StockCharts.com keeps me "live" on their Public List. Just click on "Follower" and / or "Vote" in the upper right corner after entering the following URL: http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666. It is the only way to keep this work alive on StockCharts PublicList. You can Vote once per day!
Thanks for your support for my "stuff" - its growing...
Repeating: I continue to find little to nothing to de-rail my position that the U.S. is already in an (unannounced) Recession -- and -- that a "Confirmed" Bearish Inflection Point is well over due.
My Forecast - Bounce / Mini-Rally has now materialized and will likely get a bit scary for the Bears before it is over. I understand that MANY of you do NOT agree, but I stopped reading and listening to other peoples opinions (OPO) over 40 years ago. If you disagree, you might do the same.
My "Stuff" / Methodology works very well for both Me and My Clients over those years -- without OPOs.
* The Stock Market - (Indices) was Up - NY & Down - Nasdaq this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (Breadth) was Up this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (Insiders) was Up this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (High Yield Bonds) was Up this past Week as Forecast!
Weekly Conclusion: They (the above) are currently - In Sync. And they all have Deteriorating Technical Indicators. Understand that: There is an important difference with each of these Market Indicators... I know of no Financial Analyst that has an Accurate Handle on - these four important and key Market Indicators. My Forecast for a Bounce / Mini-Rally is still in force.
Note: My Forecast for the General Market (Indices / Breadth / Insider / Bond Yield) is Bearish, but REQUIRES "Confirmations" to be active. Until my "Confirmations" are in place (Kick-In) I cannot take further Bearish Positions.
Treasuries were Down slightly for the week. A Pull Back is in the making. Investing in Treasuries that have been moving sideways since September 2011 is not a good way to Invest Your Money! Warnings were offered then and now!
The U.S. Dollar was UP a bit - but seem to be leading Treasuries for several months. My Forecast Rally now looks like it is Topping or has Topped.
Oil (Crude) was Dow over 3% again. Last Week I said: "A Mini-Rally is in force, however I would expect a pull back to begin again rather soon." Well, that has now happened.
Gold was Down a bit. I said last week that the little Rally will likely fail. It's in the Process. Remember the Highs were way back in August 2011 at $1925. The current price of $1750 is a long ways from getting excited again. The Gold Bugs are always excited and seldom have much to support their excitement from what I read -- they too are just doing their thing! And that is most usually the Wrong Thing.
For SafeHaven.com Readers
The following are the 13 Companies and 13 ETFs that I providing Articles and Alerts / Warnings. Remember, these are only my Bellwether Companies as a partial guide to use my Rotation Model to Identify the Currently Most Favorable Companies and ETFs to consider at the time of the above mentioned Inflection Points.
Companies & ETFs - (Included in my On Going - Forecasts): AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T, XOM,BJK, IAI, IAT, IGV, KOL, XAR, XBI, XES, XHB, XME, XOP, XPH, XSD. (To view my 20-Year Charts for Companies and / or 5-Year Charts for ETF for any of the above Symbols - just Click on the Symbol).
StockCharts (ALL ( 50 or so) High Profile - Bellwether Companies) Public List: http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666
I hope you will become a regular Follower and perhaps a valued Client. My work / analytics should be very compelling for your considering working with me.
Smile, Have Fun - "Investing Wisely,"