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Saturday (morning) Weekly Market Wrap for December 15, 2012
Good Morning: It's Saturday again...
Accuracy in Forecasting -- Is What it is All About:
This all dates back to over 50 years of my work / analytics of Raw Data Interpretation and Inflection Points.
I have written a large number of articles on my Methodology which is based on the early and clear Forecasting and Identification of all Inflection Points. I know of no other source of information and data that provides LEADING guidance with this consistent accuracy.
All my articles are based on "My Methodology" - You might consider spending some time reviewing the following URL: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27312/my-methodology
The Market for the Past Week
We are back to a Bearish Week for both the NY and the Nasdaq. I remain Bearish and I / We (Clients) are definitely "Bearish." The Bounce / Mini-Rally I have Forecast is clearly still in place. (Please see my Inflection Point Count on StockCharts Public List - see below for the URLs). Remember, there is only one thing that can DELAY an Accurate Forecast -- That is - NEWS.
I hope you are beginning to believe that I am producing Very Accurate Forecasts. Accurate Forecasts lead to Results and Results are Profiting in the Stock Market. Bullish or Bearish, I hope you like what I am sharing.
The Bounce / Mini-Rally is still in place but now is the time when I get very surgical. Precession and Selectivity is Critical, but most Investors and Financial Analysts still insist that you do not have to be "Surgical" / "Precise" / "Highly Selective." I can only say, with all due respect - you are wrong!
This week's News was, you guessed it - "Fiscal Cliff." A catchy name that grabs headlines but have you scratched below the Hype? Spending or Taxes is the hype and the politicians in Washington and likely else where are happy as a pig in fresh mud. Only something very forceful will cause logic to prevail. Therefore, I am forecasting (Economically and Financially - Over-all) that there will be a) a fall over the cliff and b) that the Marketplace will continue to come lower. It will be the latter that is the stimulus that - "will cause logic to prevail."
Repeating: So we ALSO have, (perhaps a better description is "BS" and that is a FACT! Billions will also be spent on (pork barrel politics) satisfying both Republicans and Democrats in order to -- Attempt to Do What is Right for the PEOPLE! Winston Churchill once said: "Given enough Attempts the U.S. always gets it Right." This "ATTEMPT" is going to be just one more Blundering Failure.
My June and October Forecast for Apple, Inc. was and is very accurate. I have used AAPL as a Bellwether for years and it is as good as any Indicator you might use. I am not so sure Apple, Inc. will not look a lot like Microsoft Corp. did over the past decade - in or after the next decade is over. That too is a Warning. Good Company Indicators are hard to find and they definitely don't last. AAPL was off almost 9% last week and another 4.5% this past week. Closing at $510 it is off its high of $702 by over 27%. Twenty percent is considered a Bear Market. So, Apple, Inc. is having its own Bear Market. I am forecasting a rally in Apple again, but that will likely be - "only a nice bounce." It is following my Forecast - check it/me out.
Here is what I have said for weeks about the U.S. Recession: ""the U.S. is in an (unannounced) Recession, that and much more will be "announced" AFTER the Election. I believe you will find that -- nine European Countries are IN Formal / Announced Recession. The U.S. and some Asian Countries are also in peril.""
More on that tomorrow - exclusively in my Sunday (morning) "Client Weekly ("Rather Detailed") Forecast - Update."
The "Fiscal Cliff(s)" will also not soon go away...
This Article is Well Worth Your Reading: http://pragcap.com/trendline-unemployment-rate-projects-end-of-fed-easing-by-late-2014
The Title of this article should give you a perspective on my Economic thinking. Aren't we still in 2012? Isn't late 2014 far off in the future somewhere? Answers: Yes / Yes.
For the week, the NY and the Nasdaq were DOWN. The last Pull Back lasted eight weeks. The Nasdaq has been down 2 weeks and the NY one week. Hum!
My Fundamental - Valuation Work / Forecast of -- Not such good Earnings was again endorsed and magnified this past week.
Europe and Asia are not doing any better despite what you read.
Not a pretty picture for the foreseeable future...
My Inflection Point (I. P.) Count and Now - More
It closed the week at an anemic 54 . So far in this "Bounce / Mini-Rally" it is likely telling us that my Forecast for a Pull-Back is coming sooner rather than later. Apple, Inc. has been telling this story for a few months now. Remember "News" can change that picture and often does! I continue to be impressed with the "Accuracy" and "Sensitivity" of My Proprietary Indicator. I am now adding a second Market Indicator. Check it out.
I have just written another fancy program that goes even further into the "guts and bones" of my I. P. Count Indicator. It caught the rally two days before it happened and this newest program gave over one week notice. http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666
I Do Not Believe in or use a Crystal Ball -- Weegie Board - Witching Stick! My "stuff" requires many hours of experience and hard work!
You might want to stay in touch with My Proprietary Indicator. Go to: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79023347983&a=270034212
This might just be the best Indicator I have ever seen! "Plug In" -- You might be impressed too?
I would appreciate your becoming a "Follower" and "Vote" to keep this Indicator Public. You will have to use this URL to participate.
I am requesting you to do this - so that StockCharts.com keeps me "live" on their Public List. Just click on "Follower" and / or "Vote" in the upper right corner after entering the following URL: http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666. It is the only way to keep this work alive on StockCharts PublicList. You can Vote once per day!
Thanks for your support for my "stuff" - its growing...
Repeating: I continue to find little to nothing to de-rail my position that the U.S. is already in an (unannounced) Recession -- and -- that a "Confirmed" Bearish Inflection Point is well over due.
My Forecast - Bounce / Mini-Rally has now materialized and will likely get a bit scary for the Bears before it is over - and it is Not Over Yet - despite Apple and others. I thought last week would be scary and even Tuesdays rally was a farce. I understand that MANY of you do NOT agree, but I stopped reading and listening to other peoples opinions (OPO) over 40 years ago. If you disagree, you might do the same. Following people that think like you is EXPENSIVE in the LONG-TERM.
My "Stuff" / Methodology works very well for both Me and My Clients over those years -- without OPOs.
* The Stock Market - (Indices ) was Down - NY and Nasdaq this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (Breadth) continued Up this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (Insiders) was Down this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (High Yield Bonds) was Down this past Week as Forecast!
Weekly Conclusion: They (the above) are currently and generally - In Sync. And they all have Deteriorating (Bearish) Technical Indicators. Understand that: There is an important difference with each of these Market Indicators... I know of no Financial Analyst that has an Accurate Handle on - these four important and key Market Indicators. My Forecast for a Bounce / Mini-Rally is still in force.
Note: My Forecast for the General Market (Indices / Breadth / Insider / Bond Yield) is Bearish, but REQUIRES "Confirmations" to be activated. Until my "Confirmations" are in place (Kick-In) I cannot take further Bearish Positions.
Treasuries were Down slightly for the week. I have Forecast that: A Pull Back is in the making. Investing in Treasuries that have been moving sideways since September 2011 is not a good way to Invest Your Money! Warnings were offered then and now!
The U.S. Dollar was Down over one percent - that's unusual. It seems to be leading Treasuries for several months. My Forecast Rally now looks like it is Topping or has Topped.
Oil (Crude) was Up again but that won't last. Last Week I said: "A Mini-Rally is in force, however I would expect a pull back to begin again rather soon." Well, that has now happened. Crude Oil has been down since early September. That too was Forecast.
Gold was Down a bit. Is a rally in the making? I'll let you know... Remember the Highs were way back in August 2011 at $1925. The current price of $1698 is a long ways from getting excited again. The Gold Bugs are always excited and seldom have much to support their excitement from what I read -- they too are just doing their thing! And that is most usually the Wrong Thing.
Silver was also Down - BIG over 2% and is clearly coming lower. This has been my Forecast for several months. Is currently tracking Gold.
Commodities (Comprehensive) was Down just a bit. Last week I said: "A Pull-Back is in the making." That too is now Fact! When will it Rally? I keep close tabs on these Commodities, they too are great Indicators.
I hope and invite you to permit me to reply your Questions and Thoughts.
My Email Address: firstname.lastname@example.org
For SafeHaven.com Readers
The following are the 13 Companies and 13 ETFs that I providing Articles and Alerts / Warnings. Remember, these are only my Bellwether Companies as a partial guide to use my Rotation Model to Identify the Currently Most Favorable Companies and ETFs to consider at the time of the above mentioned Inflection Points.
Companies & ETFs - (Included in my On Going - Forecasts): AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T, XOM,BJK, IAI, IAT, IGV, KOL, XAR, XBI, XES, XHB, XME, XOP, XPH, XSD. (To view my 20-Year Charts for Companies and / or 5-Year Charts for ETF for any of the above Symbols - just Click on the Symbol ).
StockCharts (ALL ( 50 or so) High Profile - Bellwether Companies) Public List: http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666
I hope you will become a regular Follower and perhaps a valued Client. My work / analytics should be very compelling for your considering working with me.
Smile, Have Fun - "Investing Wisely,"