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The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Saturday, December 15, 2012

Last week we pointed out that weak seasonals and the FOMC meeting may cause the market to move in opposite directions. The indices surged ahead of the FOMC meeting and sold off afterwards.

The duration and the size of the moves in both directions were well within the norm for the average swing cycle and size for the last 6 months, as measured by OddsTrader:

After peaking on Dec. 12th market breadth is deteriorating and, at the current rate, is likely to bottom out mid-week:

As long as the SPX stays above 1400, bulls can hope that it is embarking on a more sustainable trend, similar to that of the December '11 - March '12 rally. A drop to 1390 will coincide with channel support and be consistent with a rate of advance similar to the June - September '12 rally:

 

Author: George Krum

George Krum
www.citdates.blogspot.com

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps:

OddsTrader - combines the power of Hurst Channels with proper risk and position size management. For a web version see OT Signals below.

Gann 9 - the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world, and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - pairs trading, one of the most successful hedge fund trading strategies, is now available on your smart phone.

OT Pivots - combines the power of pivot lines with cycles to provide you with concise technical analysis and powerful trading signals.

OT Signals - a web app accessible from any browser, tablet or pc. It gives buy/sell/hold ratings for any instrument from around the world, and defines the trend and support/resistance levels.

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