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Investor Sentiment: Happy New Year!

By: Guy Lerner | Monday, December 31, 2012

Have A Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2013!

The "Dumb Money" indicator (see figure 1) looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market: 1) Investors Intelligence; 2) MarketVane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio. This indicator shows extreme bullishness. A bear signal is confirmed when the indicator crosses back below the upper trading band.

Figure 1. "Dumb Money"/ weekly

Figure 2 is a weekly chart of the SP500 with the InsiderScore "entire market" value in the lower panel. From the InsiderScore weekly report: "Our market-wide sentiment reading continues to be within the Strong Sell Bias range. The closure of trading windows at some companies as the quarter ends and the holiday season is impacting trading volume, but it's clear that insiders are more comfortable selling, rather than buying, right now. As we've discussed before, we believe that the specter of higher taxes in 2013 has been influencing some insiders to decision sell."

Figure 2. InsiderScore "Entire Market" value/ weekly

Figure 3 is a weekly chart of the SP500. The indicator in the lower panel measures all the assets in the Rydex bullish oriented equity funds divided by the sum of assets in the bullish oriented equity funds plus the assets in the bearish oriented equity funds. When the indicator is green, the value is low and there is fear in the market; this is where market bottoms are forged. When the indicator is red, there is complacency in the market. There are too many bulls and this is when market advances stall. Currently, the value of the indicator is 62.89%. Values less than 50% are associated with market bottoms. Values greater than 58% are associated with market tops. It should be noted that the market topped out in 2011 with this indicator between 70% and 72%.

Figure 3. Rydex Total Bull v. Total Bear/ weekly

 


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Author: Guy Lerner

Guy M. Lerner
http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/

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