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When to Buy / When to Hold Cash
You may already know that my Forecasts for both the General Market and Specific Securities and ETFs is/are very Accurate.
There are many criteria on how to determine When you are in a Bullish or Bearish Cycle. And, indeed I use a bunch of them.
If you follow my Public Chart List - you will see my notations that there are Primary Cycles and Secondary Cycles. This is true for both Bullish and Bearish environments. Have a look at page 2 and 3. http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666
You also know that there are unique time frames when I will take Bullish positions in a Bearish Primary Cycle and Bearish positions in a Primary Bullish Cycle. This has been clearly proven and documented here in SafeHaven.com via my flow of articles.
Unfortunately, these articles require a great deal of my time to do the proper amount of research and write. I am sensitive about having response from my readers and for the several years I have been faithfully posting the response has been pathetic. So, I am cutting back on providing my specific guidance to a point where, I believe my articles cannot be used to make money, if you invest When I offer my guidance. I will write from time to time more generic articles like this one.
Generic (rather than) Specific
My articles often talk about When / What / Why. All three are equally important but the When to become Bullish or Bearish is critical if you want to have a profitable year or decade. Investing in the What is very important (see My Rotation Model) for an explanation. However, investing in the perfect What at the wrong time is asking to lose money and really not very smart. That's why I insist on having the Why - I should take a position or hold cash is so critical for me.
So, what is my Big Picture and just maybe you can benefit, I hope so. Investing in common stock must be compared to investing in Government Bonds. I use Treasuries to balance my risk / reward formula. As you know I also do more Fundamental Analytics than most of my peers. My rather unique method for doing my Valuation work still tells me that this Marketplace is way to high to be Bullish.
The fact that the Marketplace changes, just frequently enough to keep me happy to be faithful to all the grunt work / analytics that I do, each and every day, is very satisfying.
Some stats you might want to ponder are:
- Bear Markets lose over 30+% of what you have accumulated in Bull Markets. What a waste to be a Buy and Hold Investor.
- The U.S. Dollar and U.S. Treasuries are not as reliable as you have been lead to believe.
- Gold is a pathetic Indicator of the direction of the Marketplace.
- Positive Earnings and Earnings Growth will ALWAYS produce profits if you have a decent grasp of the Technicals.
- Negative Earnings and Earning Growth will ALWAYS produce losses and you had better have a decent grasp of the Technicals.
- Understand that the two statements immediately above -- ALWAYS have exceptions. That is WHY I can be long in a Bearish environment and short or in cash in a Primary Bullish environment.
- Many / Most Financial Analysts and Asset Managers would have you believe that there are specific or mechanical benchmarks such as a P/E above or below a certain number. That is unacceptable for my Analytics and always has been.
- Many / Most Financial Analysts and Asset Managers would have you believe History will repeat itself with similar benchmarks or patterns. Believe me they are correct to such a limited degree that you must never Buy-Into that kind of advice.
- If you think the Marketplace can be decoded with benchmarks, technical theories that abound you are going to grow older with much disappointment.
- Hedging you Investments should only be done with CASH!
- A Methodology such as the one I publish is only a reference. Doing your Homework at least several hours per day, seven days a week will soon refine your skills and you can begin to enjoy consistent annual profitability.
I sincerely hope, you will want to Email and visit a bit with me. Email Address: firstname.lastname@example.org
Smile, Have Fun - "Investing Wisely,"