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IBEX: Follow Up of the Long Term EWP

By: TheWaveTrading | Saturday, January 12, 2013

I maintain the big picture, which I posted on June 28:

"The cardinal idea is that price is unfolding a Double Zig Zag = (ABC=W; X; ABC=Y)

From the 2007 top we can segregate the pattern into 3 sequences:

The projected equality extension target for the wave (Y) is at a "bloodcurdling" 2902.

Below is the monthly chart I posted:

IBEX Old Monthly Chart
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The Triple Zig Zag wave (A) was established at the July lows, therefore if the overall count is correct price has embarked in a countertrend wave (B) that eventually will be badly sold. Once the wave (B) is in place the long term down trend will resume with a wave (C) down that could match the length of the previous wave (A) = - 6335 points.

Usually a wave (B) tops in the Fibonacci retracement range between the 0.5 & 0.618.

We can see that price has reached the previous wave (X) which was established with a Triangle and a speculative upper trend line of the channel within which price has unfolded the Triple Zig Zag hence given the extended move in this area I expect a short term pause.

In the overdue pullback I don't expect price to breach the 20 wma = 7943, while the potential final target as mentioned above could be located in the range 9070 - 9818

IBEX Weekly Chart
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Weekly RSI does not show a negative divergence hence this up leg is not the last one within the assumed wave (B). It remains to be seen if in the expected following pullback the RSI will not breach the rising trend line in force since the June 2012 low.

IBEX Weekly Momentum Chart
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In the next weekly chart I show my preferred count for the up leg from the July low, which is a Double Zig Zag

If this count is correct price is unfolding the wave (A) of the second Zig Zag

The equality extension target for the wave (Y) is at 9816, which coincides +/- with the 0.618 retracement of the wave (A) Triple Zig Zag down leg off the January 2010 top.

IBEX Weekly Double Zig Zag Chart
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Author: TheWaveTrading

TheWaveTrading

Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him at thewavetrading@gmail.com

The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets and asset classes.

In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.

My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies and commodities markets.

My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines and investor sentiment.

My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).

The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.

Therefore the main purpose of TWT will be to establish investment strategies regardless if the market is in an up trend or in a down trend, leveraging the chosen scenario while managing the risk by establishing protective stop losses.

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