It looks like someone linked you here to our printer friendly page. Please make sure you go Back to Safehaven.com for more great articles just like this one!

Is There Any Hope For Stock Bears?

By: Chris Ciovacco | Wednesday, January 16, 2013

As of the close Tuesday, the bulls remained in control, but there are reasons to pay attention this week with an open mind:


Bond Yields Say "Pay Attention"

When demand for safe-haven bonds picks up, bond yields fall. Falling bond yields signal concerns about future economic growth and/or the sustainability of gains in risk assets, such as stocks. As shown below, long-term yields peaked in early 2013. The trend in yields is still up, but further declines would increase our concerns about the current stock market rally. There are no red flags in the chart below, but it is fair to say yellow flags have been raised.

$TYX 30-Yeart T-Bond Yield INDX

On the fundamental front, industrial production increased for the second straight month in December. Another read on the economy comes Tuesday at 2:00 PM ET in the form of the Fed's Beige Book.


Fear Index Nearing Relative Support

The risk-on vs. risk-off ratio below shows the performance of stocks relative to the VIX "fear index". When the ratio is rising, stocks are in greater demand than the VIX. When the ratio is falling, the desire to own the VIX is greater than the desire to own stocks (a.k.a. risk-off). When the ratio has been turned back at the blue trendlines below (red arrows), the S&P 500 has performed poorly (see bottom of chart). Investors will learn a great deal about the next leg in stocks based on how the ratio below performs near possible resistance.

$SPX:$VIX S&P 500/Volatility (New) INDX/INDX

Earnings could impact the charts shown here. Thursday brings releases from Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C). Blue-chip GE is on deck for Friday, along with Morgan Stanley (MS) and Schlumberger (SLB).


Safe-Haven Bonds Attracting Buyers

Another risk-on vs. risk-off ratio used in our proprietary market models is the S&P 500 (SPY) relative to 7-10-year Treasuries (IEF). When the ratio is rising, stocks are in favor relative to bonds (see chart below). When the ratio is falling, bonds are strong relative to stocks. Like the VIX ratio covered previously, the stock/bond ratio is facing weekly resistance. Note how the S&P 500 fared the two previous times the blue trendline acted as resistance (stocks did poorly).

$SPX:IEF S&P 500/iShs T-Bnd 7-10y INDX/NYSE

As described at the 26:41 mark of the video below, weekly indicators for SPY/IEF are still siding with risk-on. The video also covers DeMark counts for the S&P 500 beginning at the 3:21 mark. Bullish weekly momentum for stocks is covered beginning at the 20:14 mark.

 

 


Auto Demand Plunges In Europe

European stocks were leaders off the June 2012 low and continue to lead. While austerity can be an economic positive in the long-run, it reduces spending and incomes in the short-run. European consumers have become more conservative. Demand for new cars in recession-bound Europe fell to a 17-year low in 2012. We are keeping a watchful eye on German (EWG), Italian (EWI), and Spanish (EWP) stocks.


Bulls In Control With Support Nearby

How can the charts presented here help us? We often to refer to resistance as "possible resistance" since a bullish breakout is always possible. We do not have to guess which way the charts will break (bullish or bearish). We can simply observe what transpires and make any needed adjustments on the fly. As noted previously, the bulls are in control as of Tuesday's close. The tweet below (@CiovaccoCapital) summarizes our stance in this bullish, but hesitant environment.

Chris Tweet - approach remains the same ...

While the S&P 500 has yet to clear the September intraday high of 1474, it has made a higher high on a closing basis (see chart below). The blue lines represent areas of possible support, meaning the bears have some hurdles of their own should stock market weakness return.

$SPX S&P 500 Large Cap Index INDX

The weekly chart of the NYSE Composite below provides an example of why we keep saying the bulls are still in control. The indicator at the bottom tracks market momentum. Notice when momentum is in "overbought" territory (green arrows), stocks have performed well (follow green dotted lines up). Our concerns would increase when the indicator drops below overbought territory (below -20).

$NYA NYSE Composite Index INDX

We have been long only (no shorts, no hedges) since noting bullish improvements on November 19, 2012. Since then, the S&P 500 has tacked on 127 points. We will remain invested as long as the charts and fundamentals allow, which could be for several more weeks or just a matter of days.

 

Author: Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco
Ciovacco Capital Management

Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors and tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE.

Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC is an independent money management firm based in Atlanta, Georgia. CCM helps individual investors and businesses, large & small; achieve improved investment results via research and globally diversified investment portfolios. Since we are a fee-based firm, our only objective is to help you protect and grow your assets. Our long-term, theme-oriented, buy-and-hold approach allows for portfolio rebalancing from time to time to adjust to new opportunities or changing market conditions.

Copyright © 2006-2014 Chris Ciovacco