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Weekly Technical Analysis

By: TheWaveTrading | Sunday, January 27, 2013

This weekend I will begin the Technical update reviewing one of the two Ending Diagonal options that I have discussed in my last SPX Update of the Long-Term Count on January 6.

Before analysing in detail this option just as a reminder my overall scenario remains unchanged: "From the 2000 Top price is unfolding a Double Zig Zag, therefore now price is involved in completing the wave (X). Once the wave (X) is in place price will begin to unfold the second Zig Zag down towards the 2009 lows. Therefore I dismiss any bullish scenario that implies a major break out above the 2000 top; instead I maintain the assumption that considers a move back down towards the 2009 lows once the wave (X) is complete."

Since a wave (X) is by definition a corrective countertrend move in my opinion it is reasonable to consider that from the November 2008 low price is unfolding a Double Zig Zag.

In the monthly chart below I show the overall count from the March 2000 top. In this case I am assuming that from the June 2012 low price has began an Ending Diagonal that will complete the second Zig Zag of the wave (X) establishing a Major Top.

I also highlight the eom print of August 2000 = 1517.68 as a potential magnet for the current wave (III) of the Ending Diagonal project.

Technically this is a valid option since the internal structure of the two up legs from the June 2012 are both corrective.

SPX Monthly Chart
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Next in the weekly chart below I zoom in the time frame where price is expect to unfold the Ending Diagonal "project". As we can see from the June lows to the September peak price has unfolded the wave (I), in the following pullback price established at the November low the wave (II), and the current up leg is the assumed wave (III) of the Ending Diagonal.

SPX Weekly Double Zig Zag Chart
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If price is unfolding an Ending Diagonal then the major requirements are:

Regarding the internal structure, the waves of an ED have to subdivide into a Zig Zag or a combination (Double Zig Zag).

In my opinion as I have discussed in the daily updates the assumed current wave (III) is unfolding a Double Zig Zag therefore price should still be involved in finishing the wave (A) of the second Zig Zag.

Weekly momentum is strengthening the scenario of this Ending Diagonal option:

SPX Weekly Momentum Chart
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Below I show the potential "map" of the wave (III) and (IV) of the ED. If this scenario is correct then price should soon begin a wave (B) pullback that could revisit the September 14 high, from where it should unfold the last wave (C) of (III), hence a sizeable pullback should occur once the wave (III) is in place.

SPX Daily Double Zig Zag Ending Diagonal Chart
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I modify the two potential target boxes mentioned last Thursday for the assumed wave (B) pullback:

In addition to the potential not complete EW count I consider that the up leg off the December 31 low has more business to the upside because there is no negative divergence in the daily RSI.

Regarding the short-term price action despite the fact that there is still no clear ending pattern in sight for the up leg from the December 31 low we do have increasing warnings that a pullback is due:

SPX Daily Momentum Chart
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NYSE McClellan Oscillator Chart

NYSE Advance/Decline Volume Chart

- No lower low

- Positive divergence of the MACD histogram

- MACD is very close to issue a bullish signal cross

If the gap at 13.57 is closed then I expect at least a bounce with a target in the range 14.42 - 14.77.

VIX Daily Chart
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-Wednesday's Spinning Top.

-Thursday's gap down = Island Reversal

If a short-term top is in place then next week price has to establish a lower high (Thursday's gap down must not be closed). If this is the case then Bears should take the opportunity to ride a move towards the range 2672.30 (200dma) - 2660.93 (January 2 huge gap fill) where I expect price to complete a shallow correction.

Likewise SPX, the overall count off the November 16 low should be a Double Zig Zag in which case price has began the wave (B) pullback of the second Zig Zag. (Blue count)

If the gap at 2660.93 is closed then instead of a Double Zig Zag the overall count would be a Zig Zag and the assumed wave (B) pullback should bottom no lower than the December 31 low. (Black count)

I consider this option less likely.

Either way, in my opinion, the EWP is suggesting that there is still a pending wave (C) up.

NDX Daily Chart
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Regarding the bigger picture for NDX I am working with the scenario of a Triangle wave (B):

If this pattern is the correct one then:

NDX Weekly Triangle Wave B Chart
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Regarding TWT Swing Picks on Friday I closed the UGL long position with a loss as GLD closed below the 200 dma.

So it has not been a good start for the inaugural "virtual" trading initiative. Next week I will try to be on the look out for a long set up with SPXU and or with QID (since NDX has most likely already began a correction). Today I will also analyse trading opportunities in other leveraged short etf.

 

Author: TheWaveTrading

TheWaveTrading

Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him at thewavetrading@gmail.com

The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets and asset classes.

In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.

My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies and commodities markets.

My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines and investor sentiment.

My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).

The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.

Therefore the main purpose of TWT will be to establish investment strategies regardless if the market is in an up trend or in a down trend, leveraging the chosen scenario while managing the risk by establishing protective stop losses.

Hence I will always define the risk, I will try to let winners run the wave and I will cut the losses if my strategy is wrong.

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