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Broad Perspective - SP500, Gold, Miners and USD

By: William Yii | Tuesday, January 29, 2013

S&P500 (Monthly) - is a mere touch away from its peak in 2000 and 2007. Its MACD & stochastic are at a huge overbought level while volume of its rally since 2009 continues to drop and remains at a dismal level. Technically speaking, the index is up for a big test even if it could eventually rally another 50 points to reach the previous peak levels. Given that it is currently trading at consensus FY13 PE of 13.5x versus its EPS growth forecast of 10% (source: Bloomberg), valuation seems fair at best if not overvalued. However, as FY12's actual earnings growth is only about 4.7%, the critical question here is: can we trust the current consensus number and not expecting further earnings downgrades just like what we saw in the past 12 months? Very unlikely unless we could see strong earnings drivers going forward.

SPX

Gold (Monthly) - on stochastic indicator, prices have already retraced to the level last seen in 2008 and turned positive since August 2012. However, since the MACD has further room to contract, I believe prices are in the midst of tracing out and attempting to turn positive in coming weeks. Indeed, the multi-month bull trend has a solid support of gold price at USD 1,500 before the trend can be broken!

Gold

Gold (Weekly) - more interestingly, this highly probable reversed Head & Shoulder pattern could spell wonder for gold prices. Assuming the pattern is confirmed with a breakout of its neckline at about USD 1,800 in coming weeks, its minimum textbook H&S target is at USD 2,150.

Gold Weekly

Miners (Monthly) - In spite of so many gloomy views on miners in recent months due to HUI's inability to sustain the momentum after a recent breakout from 2012's low, this chart looks rather comforting in that it does not seem to be bearish in whatever way i look at it. Similiar to gold, its stochastic has already turned positive since the end of August 2012. More importantly, its MACD is approaching the bottoming level last seen in 2008. The only negative here is that its MACD has not yet turned positive. The absolute support for its bull trend line is at about 350 level or 11% away from the last closing price.

HUI Index

DXY (Monthly) - USD remains trapped in its downtrend since the peak in 2001. It is touching the upper bound of downtrend line with further room to decline on its stochastic while MACD is attempting to cross down negatively.
DXY

DXY (Weekly) - The clear Complex Head & Shoulder pattern since the beginning of 2012 remains constructive of a breakout to the downside. We should be able to see the confirmation of this in coming months, if not weeks.

DXY

In conclusion - equities are heavily stretched upward while gold & miners are increasing close to their respective intermediate and overstretched corrections since 2011's peak. For bull believers and wannabe, it may be worthwhile to keep a close eyes for potential long positions soon.

 

Author: William Yii

William Yii
AlphaOmegaHedge

William Yii

Alphaomegahedge is a financial blog that attempts to use the powerful tools of technical analysis plus the big picture of some important fundamental views in identifying major & intermediate trends of risky assets. My main focus are precious metals & miners, U.S major indices & Malaysia Equities.

Author is an equities fund manger who is currently based in Malaysia.

Rightly or wrongly, the views expressed on this blog are of author's personal opinion and shall neither serve as investment advice nor recommendation under any circumstances. All views are meant for educational purposes only.

Copyright © 2013 William Yii