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SPX: Follow Up of the Short Term EWP
So we finally have FOMC upon us ("Turning window"?)
But do not forget about next Friday's NFP (Another potential "turning window")
Since I don't change my scenario this update is very brief.
- Reminder of the potential long-term scenario:
I am assuming that from the June 2012 low price has began an Ending Diagonal that will complete the second Zig Zag of the wave (X) establishing a Major Top:
I also believe that the assumed wave (III) of the Ending Diagonal "project" is not over.
I am expecting a pullback wave (B) with a target in the range 1474-1451.
Because in my opinion from the November lows price is unfolding a Double Zig Zag that still needs the last wave (C) up.
- Short-term EWP options:
1. Price is approaching the top of the Assumed wave (A) with a post Triangle thrust. Probably the wave (5) is not in place yet.
The theoretical target is at 1510.85.
If this count is correct, the loss of 1506.39 should increase the selling pressure and begin the OVERDUE pullback
2. Price from the January 24 higher low has unfolded a Leading Diagonal wave (1), hence if this is the correct count price is now involved in finishing the wave (3). This scenario can play out as long as the following pullback is corrective and does not overlap below 1503.26.
This outcome means that today Ben is going to be as dovish as the bulls desire. Then maybe this impulsive up leg could be over by next Friday's NFP
- In addition to the EW counting we know that the market is extremely overbought and vulnerable. But we still need to see a reversal of momentum indicators.
- We also have to be aware that without a correction breadth indicators are no longer overbought, hence this is one reason why I am not expecting a sizeable correction. But when THEY decide that enough is enough I would not rule out a quick drop of 30/40 points in a matter of few trading days. (Below we can see that the stochastic of the McClellan Oscillator is already approaching the oversold zone)
- I am watching the following Risk On/ Risk Off gauges:
(I posted the following charts this morning on StocKtwits/Twitter so they are not updated.)
1. US 10yr Treasury Note:
NDX yesterday I mentioned that NDX is not following SPX higher as it could have already began the awaited technical correction (No chart today as there is no chnage).
VIX is diverging:
It looks like we are going to have an interesting trading day from 2:15 pm (ET).