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On Script

By: Erik Swarts | Thursday, February 14, 2013

The euro appears to be following the mirrored pivot glide-path from this weekend (see Here). Going forward, we will be looking for downside momentum to become entangled around the bottom rail (e.g. stochastics & RSI).

A Mirrored Pivot 2011 Euro vs 2013 Euro (Daily)
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The window in the diminished correlation extreme between the Australian dollar and gold appears to be resolving (from last week, see Here). We maintain the bearish expectations of long-term breakdowns in both the Aussie as well as gold - as the respective pivots in this long-term relationship once again tighten.

Australian $ vs Gold (GLD)
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Silver continues to follow the unwind of 1991/1992 Nikkei comparative. Interestingly, it has taken its time since the last pivot and has aligned with the seasonality of the pattern. Should the comparative continue to be prescient, the lows from early January will be broken shortly.

1991 Nikkei vs 2013 Silver
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Author: Erik Swarts

Erik Swarts
Market Anthropology

Although I am an active trader, I have always taken a broad perspective when approaching the markets. I respect the Big Picture and attempt to place each piece of information within its appropriate context and timeframe. I have found that without this approach, there is very little understanding of ones expectations in the market and an endless potential for risk.

I am not a stock picker - but trade the broader market itself in varying timeframes. I want to know which way the prevailing wind is blowing, where the doldrums can be expected and where the shoals will likely rise. I will not claim to know which vessel is the fastest or most comfortable for passage - but I can read the charts and know the risks.

I am not a salesperson for the market and its many wares. I observe it, contextualize its moving parts - both visible and discrete - and interpret.

I practice Market Anthropology - Welcome to my notes.

Erik Swarts is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content be used or interpreted as a recommendation for any investment, trade or approach to the markets. Trading and investing can be hazardous to your wealth. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. All opinions expressed by Mr. Swarts are subject to change without notice, and the reader should always obtain current information and perform their own due diligence before making any investment or trading decision.

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