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The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Saturday, March 2, 2013

From a weekly seasonal point of view, the SPX is currently navigating the most troubled waters:

SPY

And it is doing so remarkably well, considering that the trend remains up in daily, weekly and monthly time-frames. Since the seasonally weak period extends for a few more weeks, let's focus on the negatives.

The SPX made two lower highs and failed twice at the 1526 level. If history is any guidance, the most likely interpretation is that the index has entered another congestion zone:

SPX

While the DJIA made a new high, the Qs are being dragged down by the likes of AAPL, which has just broken below support and is aiming for our next support zone:

DOW

In summary, while the trend remains up for all the major indices, there are a few clouds gathering on the horizon. The outcome will largely depend on the ability of the SPX to remain within the 2012 channel shown above.

 

Author: George Krum

George Krum
www.citdates.blogspot.com

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps available from iTunes:

OddsTrader - uses the power of Hurst Channels to produce price and time targets, and combines them with proper risk and position size management.

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - is the first mobile app that gives users access to one of the most profitable and time tested hedge fund trading strategies.

OT Pivots - combines the power of Pivot lines with cycles and automatic signal generation.

Gann 9 - is the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

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