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Beware The Ides of March

By: Robert McHugh | Sunday, March 3, 2013

In ten of the past 13 years, from 2000 through 2012, the S&P 500 has experienced a significant trend turn in the Month of March, a turn that was followed by a move of at least 100 points. In the three exception years, 2006, 2010 and 2012, there were significant trend turns within four weeks of the month of March, in the case of 2012, within a few days of the month of March. Maybe it has to do with the changing of the seasons. Maybe something to do with the equinox.

Markets again are setting up for another trend turn of significance in March 2013. Stocks have been rallying since mid-November 2012 in what we believe is the first leg of a three wave rally that will lead to an important top, a top that will end the Bull market from March 2009, and end a Bull market that has been in place for over three centuries. The top arriving this month is the "a" wave of an a-up, b-down, c-up rally leg. Wave a-up has taken the S&P 500 up over 180 points, and could take the S&P 500 to a new all-time high before it tops. Once this wave a-up move finishes this month, we could see a 100 point decline in the S&P 500, wave b-down. Then wave c-up will take the S&P 500 sharply higher, possibly 200 points higher which along with the Dow Industrials, will finish a massive Jaws of Death pattern. Wave c-up will reach the upper boundary of that pattern, which has been in formation since 1990, as high as 1,700ish.

March Key Reversals 2000-2009

March Key Reversals 2009-2013

DOW Monthly Chart

This is the major Topping Formation that is the Multi-Century Top. This is a Broadening Top, Megaphone Top pattern. These patterns are reliable and appear at tops. This one is huge, as it should be for the conclusion of a multi-century rally. We call it the Jaws of Death pattern.

This pattern jumps out at us, and is our highest probability scenario for the big picture. We believe that the Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} top did not occur at the January 14th, 2000 top, and did not occur at the October 2007 top. We believe those tops were waves (A) and (C) of a massive Megaphone Top pattern in stocks.

What is intriguing about this scenario is that each wave has three subwaves, that the pattern has five waves (key characteristics), and that the fifth and final wave (E) up of V up is finishing. If so, this means that the coming Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down could start later in 2012 or early 2013, and will be much worse than what we have seen over the past decade.

This price pattern is looking more and more like a textbook Megaphone topping pattern. The slope of the top and bottom boundary lines is identical in reverse, and authentic since the lines are drawn off two top and two bottom points, which adds to the probability that this pattern is occurring.

This pattern has appeared at many of the major tops over the past century.


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Author: Robert McHugh

Robert D. McHugh, Jr. Ph.D.
Main Line Investors, Inc.

Robert McHugh

Robert McHugh Ph.D. is President and CEO of Main Line Investors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and can be reached at The statements, opinions and analyses presented in this newsletter are provided as a general information and education service only. Opinions, estimates and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained in this newsletter is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Neither Main Line Investors, Inc. nor Robert D. McHugh, Jr., Ph.D. Editor shall be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided.

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